MBS MID-DAY: 3/16/2012

By: Matthew Graham
MBS Live: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
102-03 : -0-07
FNMA 4.0
104-14 : -0-04
FNMA 4.5
106-01 : -0-03
FNMA 5.0
107-26 : -0-02
GNMA 3.5
103-18 : -0-08
GNMA 4.0
106-29 : -0-07
GNMA 4.5
108-19 : -0-04
GNMA 5.0
110-12 : -0-04
FHLMC 3.5
101-29 : -0-06
FHLMC 4.0
104-05 : -0-05
FHLMC 4.5
105-24 : -0-04
FHLMC 5.0
107-18 : -0-02
Pricing as of 10:59 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
10:59AM  :  ALERT: MBS, Treasuries Off Weakest Levels Following Data
While there is no definitive face-melting rally underway, MBS and Treasuries have been able to stave off a break past their weakest levels of the morning. We wish we could be sure that this bodes well for the same levels holding as support for the rest of the day, but such volatility is a way of life in the short term.

Fannie 3.5's are currently significantly calmer than 10yr TSYs, having not even traded below yesterday morning's weakest levels at 101-27, hitting lows of 101-29 instead, and currently up to 102-05.

10yr yields topped out at just over 3.36 earlier this morning and made their best corrective swoop lower following tame Consumer Sentiment, though not necessarily because of it. The best thing to plan on is further volatility. We see a glimmer of hope for support at today's weakest levels, but wouldn't rule out a wider range, allowing for instance, 2.42 on the high side for 10yr Treasuries and 2.25 on the "aggressive rally" side.

Those are the extremes, but we should remember they're possible. The pops in volume combined with the price action seem to suggest the weakest levels are in, and that we could trade a narrowing or improving range from the foundation of high volume support around 2.35. Said foundation corresponds roughly to 102-00 in terms of Fannie 3.5, at least for now.

But above all else, we'd say to view any improvements in prices as a pleasant surprise, and to stay guarded against the opposite. Don't let the last hour of decent price action lull you into a false sense of security. Make sure your automatic alert settings are to your liking and send us an email to support@mortgagenewsdaily.com if you have any issues getting them set-up.
10:14AM  :  ECON: March Consumer Sentiment Dips, Inflation View Up
(Reuters) - Consumer sentiment dipped in early March as rising gasoline prices pushed Americans' inflation expectations for the next year higher, a survey released on Friday showed.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment slipped to 74.3 from 75.3 in February, shy of economists' forecasts for a gain to 76.0.

Even so, consumers did not expect the run-up in gasoline prices to last very long and anticipated further gains in employment this year.

"Overall, the data indicate that $4 gasoline has lost its shock value, although the drain on discretionary income will still affect spending, mostly among lower income households," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.
9:53AM  :  ALERT: Teetering on The Edge of Another Pop Higher in Rates
Overnight volume was fairly light until about 7am. Volume and volatility have been steadily increasing since then, and not in a friendly way for bond markets. The "real money" accounts (un-levered folks like insurance funds, banks, pension funds, etc...) have been the main source of support while levered accounts ("Fast Money") would be content to cover shorts closer to the epic 2.42 target.

But real money accounts can only do so much heavy lifting before being overwhelmed by more tactical concerns. There's a chance we will see support come in around current levels, but there is perhaps an equal chance that we'll need to see the more "cleansing" levels around 2.40% in 10yr yields before a more concerted rally would ensue.

Whatever the case, 10yr yields are holding up around 2.35% fairly supportively at the moment, and have pushed just now to mid 2.34's. Fannie 3.5 MBS are trying hard to hang on to 101-30 technical support, currently down 11 ticks on the day at 101-31.

These checks on trading levels, we're sad to say, are only as good as the time stamp on this alert. The volatility we expected after Wednesday's breakout has unfortunately been in full supply and we can't put much faith behind movements that might look like the beginnings of corrective bounces back if they're not even half the magnitude of the morning's previous gyrations.

Consumer Sentiment is up in about 5 minutes, and is the last report of the week. If it's ugly enough, it could help rates hold their ground, but the most potent motivators of trading direction remain very much disconnected from economic data at the moment, so there are no guarantees.
9:21AM  :  ECON: Industrial Production Unchanged in February
*Industrial Production unchanged at +0.4
*Capacity Utilization 78.7 vs 78.8 consensus

Industrial production was unchanged in February after having risen 0.4 percent in January. Previously, industrial production was reported to have been unchanged in January. Manufacturing output moved up 0.3 percent in February. Within manufacturing, the index for motor vehicles and parts fell 1.1 percent after jumping 8.6 percent in January, but the index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 percent in February. Production at mines fell 1.2 percent, while the output of utilities was unchanged. At 96.2 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for February was 4.0 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry edged down to 78.7 percent, a rate 1.2 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 1.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.
8:38AM  :  ECON: Consumer Prices Up On Fuel Costs, As Expected
*CPI +0.4, as expected.
*Core CPI (excludes food/energy) up 0.1 vs +0.2 consensus
*Annual CPI +2.9 and +2.2 at Core, both as expected
*Gas prices = 80 pct of February Rise
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index rose sharply in February, accounting for over 80 percent of the change in the all items index. The gasoline increase led to a 3.2 percent rise in the energy index despite a decline in the index for natural gas. The food index was unchanged in February, with the food at home index unchanged for the second month in a row as major grocery store food indexes were mixed.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in February after increasing 0.2 percent in January. Indexes for shelter, new vehicles, medical care, and household furnishings and operations all advanced, while indexes for apparel, recreation, used cars and trucks, and tobacco all declined.

The all items index has risen 2.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as last month. The index for all items less food and energy was up 2.2 percent, a slight decline from last month's 2.3 percent figure, while the 12-month change in the food index fell to 3.9 percent in February, its lowest level since last June. In contrast, the 12-month change in the energy index was 7.0 percent in February compared to 6.1 percent in January.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Gas prices got the consumer down"
Christopher Stevens  :  "that number should help ease the pressure on rates"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH 12-MONTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INDEX PRELIMINARY MARCH 74 VS FINAL FEB 82 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH 1-YEAR INFLATION OUTLOOK PRELIMINARY MARCH 4.0 PCT VS FINAL FEB 3.3 PCT "
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "should at least keep things in check for a little while"
Andy Pada  :  "maybe stop the bleeding"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "hey some good news for us"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH US CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY MARCH 74.3 (CONSENSUS 76.0) VS FINAL FEB 75.3 "
Andy Pada  :  "it was last Friday that MG mentioned 2.4 on the 10 Year"
Andy Pada  :  "to be candid, it was AQ's reference to stored energy and MG's analysis about it that made me lock about 70% of our pipeline"
Matthew Graham  :  "I'm glad we had it now, hoping it helped sober up some onlookers into a more locky feeling"
Matthew Graham  :  "I hated having it then"
Andy Pada  :  "MG, I hate that we had this conversation a week ago"
Andy Pada  :  "and there you have it"
Matthew Graham  :  "2.42 really"
Andy Pada  :  "2.40"
B-C  :  "maybe the 10yr will stop at 2.50"
Ira Selwin  :  "Anyone interested in submitting comments in regards to the proposal to reduce sellers concesssions, you can do so here: http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=HUD-2010-0063-0908"
Matthew Graham  :  "2nd chart down: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/251132.aspx"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "MG, is 102 purely a psychological pivot point, or does it have any true weight as support at this point?"
Matthew Graham  :  "super heavy"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "been out of town for a few days, quick question on the recent move in 10's.....is it confirmed by heavy volume?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. FEB CAPACITY USE RATE 78.7 (CONS 78.8 PCT) VS JAN 78.8 (PREV 78.5 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. FEB INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT UNCHANGED (CONSENSUS +0.4 PCT) VS JAN +0.4 PCT (PREV UNCHANGED) "
Jeff Anderson  :  "Sounds familiar. I'm good with that."
Matt Hodges  :  "you have said that and we need to accept it"
Matthew Graham  :  "let's get it over with today "
Matthew Graham  :  "that's what I'm sayin' hodgy"
Matt Hodges  :  "quicker we get there, the better, eh?"
Matthew Graham  :  "2.4 time?"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "Down about 43 tics on the week from open on Monday"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Same thing. Have a USDA client closing May 1. Advised him to lock on Monday AM, twice, with us paying all CC's as he wanted. Still time for him to recover, but you can only tell them so much."
Steve Chizmadia  :  "JA, I had a client holding out for a next to no cost at 3.75. Been in the pipeline for 45 days. Advised him to lock at 3.875% last week, he didn't. His loss.. Next"
Steven Stone  :  "spikes up are great to push people off of the fence..."hey take 4 before you have to take 4.5""
Matthew Graham  :  "don't be shy about dropping in on the consumer blog when such curiosities arise. A lot of work and a lot of analysis of a lot of lender's day to day price changes goes into my determinations: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/251141.aspx"
Jeff Anderson  :  "So this huge move in MBS' has really only cost a 1/4 in price. But I got 2 "Oh, I wanted under 4 % yesterday." Well, you had the last 3 months under 4%. Where were you?"
Ken Crute  :  "Concur "
Jeff Anderson  :  "We moved to 4-4.25 in the last few days, Chiz."
Matthew Graham  :  "4-4.125"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "I think the majority of us will agree BE on FHA remains and has been 3.75% with a much smaller lender credit than a week ago, but what are you guys seeing as BE on conventional deals out of curiousity?"
Matt Hodges  :  "funny, i'm seeing some of that, but a ton of ratified, but not bank approved short sales"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "Buyers are out in SoCal JA. Most agents I have spoken with are in multiple offer, highest and best bidding wars on a majority of their listings"
Jeff Anderson  :  "A number of realtors in my area, south of Boston, feel the good weather made the spring market come early as they're slowing down after a decent Jan-Feb pop. We'll see."
Matt Hodges  :  "it seems more and more analysts are looking to a continued rally past 30% gains since October - i'm thinking only EU will derail that"
Victor Burek  :  "wonder if that increase in gas prices affects sentiment later?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. FEB CPI YEAR-OVER-YEAR +2.9 PCT (CONS +2.9 PCT), EXFOOD/ENERGY +2.2 PCT (CONS +2.2 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - LABOR DEPT SAYS GASOLINE PRICES ACCOUNTED FOR OVER 80 PCT OF RISE IN FEB CPI "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. FEB CPI +0.4 PCT (+0.4079; CONSENSUS +0.4 PCT), EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.1 PCT (+0.0979; CONS +0.2 PCT) "
Steve Chizmadia  :  "Just look at the 1 year chart under advanced charts on the 3.5 coupon it'll make you feel better"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "what a rough week"