The Day Ahead: Robust Economic Calendar and Bernanke Round 2
Wednesday lived up to the hype, which we suggested was overly downplayed by the time the key events hit. Then again, 10yr yields were still under 2% and Fannie Mae 3.5 MBS were still over their 103-10 pivot by the end of the day, so maybe the "downplayers" have a point, although it would be more tenable if the weakness hadn't extended in the overnight session. 10yr yields crested the 2% mark and are trading around 2.02 at the moment. Or maybe we're all wrong and Thursday is the big day!
There is, in fact, a lot going on today... Although Bernanke will deliver a carbon copy of yesterday's Humphrey Hawkins testimony, the Q&A portion remains a contender for market moving hints. Two Other Fed voters will speak, both potentially doing so while Bernanke is still answering the Senate's questions. Wednesday's cage-match was 3 hours of blood, sweat, and Ron Paul holding up silver coins asking Bernanke if he shops for his own Groceries. If today's goes for 3 hours as well, then Bernanke's 10am start time would allow for Fed Gov Raskin at 1030am and Lockhart at 1230am to hit the wires before The Senate finishes the Q&A. For the sake of everyone's sanity we hope it's not 3 hours again.
But we digress... Well before FOMC-related considerations, there will be a glut of economic data, some more important than others. It's nicely broken down into two time slots at 8:30am and 10:00am. (Incidentally, we consider 10am economic data to occur "before" 10am Bernanke as, those who tuned into Wednesday's speech are well-aware, nothing will really happen until after the introductory formalities and moreover, the Q&A begins).
Each time slot has a winner and loser in terms of the more significant potential market mover. It's a closer fight in the 830am time slot with Personal Consumption Expenditures duking it out with weekly Jobless Claims. Adjusted consumption is expected to be much higher than the previous reading and Real Personal Spending is seen moving from a negative 0.1 to +0.3. Jobless Claims stood at 351k last week and today's estimate is a still-rosy, but slightly higher 353k, and a minuscule rise in continuing claims.
The 10am duel is no contest, with ISM Manufacturing heartily trumping Construction Spending. The forecast for the ISM report calls for a very small increase, however, to 54.6. With all the factory data already on the tape this week, the results would have to miss or beat big in order for markets to register much of a response. Construction spending is even less likely to shake things up, but is expected to show a decrease from 1.5 to 1.0, so we suppose something higher than 1.5 could maybe, possibly add fuel to any economically bullish fires that were already burning, but that's being kind.
|
Week Of Mon, Feb 27 2012 - Fri, Mar 2 2012 |
||||||
|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Feb 27 |
||||||
|
10:00 |
PENDING HOME SALES |
Jan |
% |
+1.0 |
-3.5 |
+2.0 |
|
|
Pending homes index |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
95.1(R) |
97.0 |
|
Tue, Feb 28 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
DURABLE GOODS |
Jan |
% |
-1.0 |
+3.0 |
-4.0 |
|
|
Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft |
Jan |
% |
0.4 |
+3.1 |
-4.5 |
|
|
excluding defense |
Jan |
% |
-1.0 |
3.5 |
-4.5 |
|
|
excluding transportation |
Jan |
% |
0.0 |
2.2 |
-3.2 |
|
09:00 |
CASE SHILLER 20 City |
Dec |
% |
-0.5 |
-0.7 |
-0.5 |
|
|
CaseShiller 20 (Not Seasonally Adj.) |
Dec |
% |
-1.0 |
-1.3 |
-1.1 |
|
|
CaseShiller 20 (annual) |
Dec |
% |
-3.7 |
-3.7 |
-4.0 |
|
10:00 |
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE |
Feb |
-- |
63.0 |
61.1 |
70.8 |
|
Wed, Feb 29 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
MBA MORTGAGE INDEX |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
766.1 |
763.6 |
|
|
Mortgage market: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-4.5 |
-0.3 |
|
|
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
161.8 |
175.1 |
|
|
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4322.0 |
4225.4 |
|
|
Refinancing: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-4.8 |
-2.2 |
|
|
MBA Purchase: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-2.9 |
8.2 |
|
|
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
-- |
4.09 |
4.07 |
|
08:30 |
REAL GDP |
Q4 |
% |
2.8 |
2.8 |
+3.0 |
|
|
PCE prices |
Q4 |
% |
0.7 |
0.7 |
+1.2 |
|
|
GDP sales |
Q4 |
% |
1.0 |
0.8 |
+1.1 |
|
|
GDP deflator |
Q4 |
% |
0.4 |
0.4 |
+0.9 |
|
|
Core PCE Prices |
Q4 |
% |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
|
09:45 |
CHICAGO PMI |
Feb |
-- |
61.3 |
60.2 |
64.0 |
| 10:00 | BERNANKE: FOMC's Semiannual Report to House Financial Services Committee | |||||
| 14:00 | Beige Book | |||||
|
Thu, Mar 1 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
PERSONAL INCOME |
Jan |
% |
0.4 |
0.5 |
-- |
|
|
Consumption, adjusted |
Jan |
% |
0.4 |
0.0 |
-- |
|
|
PCE price index |
Jan |
% |
0.2 |
0.1 |
-- |
|
|
Core PCE price index |
Jan |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
-- |
|
|
Real Personal Spending |
Jan |
% |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS |
w/e |
k |
353 |
351 |
-- |
|
|
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.40 |
3.392 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI |
Feb |
-- |
54.6 |
54.1 |
-- |
|
|
ISM Mfg Prices Paid |
Feb |
-- |
58.0 |
55.5 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING |
Jan |
% |
1.0 |
1.5 |
-- |
|
Fri, Mar 2 |
||||||
|
09:45 |
ISM-New York index |
Feb |
-- |
-- |
536.5 |
-- |