MBS MID-DAY: 2/28/2012

The Nationwide View on State Licensed Mortgage Entities Report has been published. This report has been updated to include data from the fourth quarter of 2011 so it now contains complete information for 2011 concerning companies, branches, and mortgage loan originators who are state-licensed or state-registered through the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System & Registry (NMLS).

Approved Entities for Licenses in NMLS
Companies:
14,980 Unique Entities
28,415 Licenses

Branches:
15,957 Unique Entities
24,021 Licenses

Individuals:
100,098 Unique Entities
182,880 Licenses

• RTRS - February Consumer Confidence Index 70.8 Vs January Revised 61.5 (Previous 61.1)
• RTRS - Median Forecast From Reuters For February Was 63.0
• RTRS - Present Situation Index In Feb 45.0 Vs Jan Revised 38.8 (Previous 38.4)
• RTRS - Expectations Index 88.0 In Feb Vs Jan Revised 76.7 (Previous 76.2)
• RTRS - Jobs Hard-To-Get Index 38.7 In Feb Vs Jan Revised 43.3 (Previous 43.5
• RTRS - 1-Year Inflation Expectations 5.5 Pct In Feb Vs Jan 5.5 Pct
• RTRS - Confidence And Expectations Index At Highest Since Feb 2011
• RTRS - Jobs Hard-To-Get Index At Lowest Since November 2008

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in January, increased in February. The Index now stands at 70.8 (1985=100), up from 61.5 in January. The Present Situation Index increased to 45.0 from 38.8. The Expectations Index rose to 88.0 from 76.7 in January. The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was February 15.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “Consumer Confidence, which had declined last month, posted a sizeable improvement in February. The Index is now close to levels last seen a year ago (Feb. 2011, 72.0.). Consumers are considerably less pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions than they were in January. And, despite further increases in gas prices, they are more optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy, job prospects, and their financial situation. ”

• RTRS - December Home Prices In 20 Metro Areas -0.5 Pct Seasonally Adj (Consensus -0.5) Vs -0.7 Pct In November - S&P/Case-Shiller
• RTRS - December 20-Metro Area Home Prices -1.1 Pct Non-Adjusted (Consensus -0.9) Vs -1.3 Pct In November-S&P/Case-Shiller
• RTRS - December 20-Metro Area Home Prices -4.0 Pct (Consensus -3.6 Pct) From Year Ago -- Case-Shiller
• RTRS - December Home Prices In 10 Metro Areas -0.5 Pct Seasonally Adjusted Vs Revised -0.8 Pct In November- Case-Shiller
• RTRS - Home Prices In 10 Metro Areas -1.1 Pct Non-Adjusted In December Vs -1.3 Pct In November - S&P/Case-Shiller
• RTRS - December Home Prices In 10 Metropolitan Areas -3.9 Pct From Year Ago - S&P/Case-Shiller
• RTRS - Q4 Home Prices -1.7 Pct Seasonally Adjusted, -3.8 Pct Non-Adjusted Vs Q3 2011 - Case Shiller National Index
• RTRS - Q4 Home Prices -4.0 Pct Vs Q4 2010 - Case Shiller National Index

"New York, February 28, 2012 – Data through December 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that all three headline composites ended 2011 at new index lows. The national composite fell by 3.8% during the fourth quarter of 2011 and was down 4.0% versus the fourth quarter of 2010. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites fell by 1.1`% in December over November, and posted annual returns of -3.9% and -4.0% versus December 2010, respectively. These are worse than the -3.8% respective annual rates both reported for November. With these latest data, all three composites are at their lowest levels since the housing crisis began in mid-2006."

Volume and volatility were in short supply overnight as 10yr yields never meaningfully crested 1.94% or fell below yesterday's low yields from the domestic session. Treasuries and MBS opened essentially where they closed and the "quiet" theme continued until January's Durable Goods report showed the biggest declines in 3 years.

10yr yields dropped about 2bps on that news and MBS put in their first 3-4 ticks of improvement on the day, but are once again a bit more tentative into a mild rally than their Treasury counterparts. Fannie 3.5's are up 3 ticks at the moment to 103-20, while 10's are down 2 bps in yield to 1.906.

Case Shiller Home Prices are up next (9am), but that's not normally a market-moving report, especially in light of the uncommonly high deviation from consensus seen in Durable Goods.

Six years after aggregate house prices first began to decline, and more than two years after the start of the economic recovery, the housing market remains a significant drag on the U.S. economy. In a typical economic cycle, as the economy turns down households postpone purchases of durable goods such as housing. Once the cycle bottoms out, improving economic prospects and diminishing uncertainty usually help unleash this pent-up demand. This upward demand pressure is often augmented by lower interest rates, to which housing demand is typically quite responsive.

The current economic recovery has not followed this script, in part because the problems in the housing market are a cause of the downturn as well as a consequence of it. The extraordinary fall in national house prices has resulted in $7 trillion in lost home equity, more than half the amount that prevailed in early 2006.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today reported that the National Average Contract Mortgage Rate for the Purchase of Previously Occupied Homes by Combined Lenders, used as an index in some ARM contracts, was 4.25 percent based on loans closed in January. This is an increase of 0.10 percent from the previous month.

The average interest rate on conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage loans of $417,000 or less increased 1 basis point to 4.33 percent in January. These results reflect loans closed during the January 25-31 period.

The contract rate on the composite of all mortgage loans (fixed- and adjustable-rate) was 4.19 percent in January, up 6 basis points from 4.13 percent in December. The effective interest rate, which reflects the amortization of initial fees and charges, was 4.31 percent in January, up 7 basis points from 4.24 percent in December.

• Headline Durables down 4.0% vs -1.0 % estimates. Biggest decline since Jan 2009
• excluding Trasnportation -3.2 vs 0.0 consensus. worst since 10/2010
• excluding defense, down 4.5. worst since 1/2009
• nondefense excluding aircraft -4.5. worst since 1/2011

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $8.6 billion or 4.0 percent to $206.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, followed a 3.2 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.5 percent.

Transportation equipment, down following two consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $3.6 billion or 6.1 percent to $55.2 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $3.8 billion.