The Day Ahead: More Economic Data, LTRO/Bernanke Loom
After a Monday with only one major economic report, Tuesday's calendar is busier by comparison. Additionally, Today's data has more more market-moving potential than yesterday's Pending Home Sales. Even then, we wonder how keen markets will be to stray very far from recent ranges given the even heftier events on the horizon just one day later. Those include not only GDP, Chicago PMI, and Bernanke's Congressional testimony, but Wednesday also sees round 2 of the ECB's Long Term Refinancing Operation, or LTRO. But we'll discuss those events anon and stay focused on Tuesday for now.
Durable Goods lead off in the 8:30am time slot and are seen contracting by 1.0 per cent after a 3.0 per cent increase in the previous month. Then at 9am Case Shiller Home Prices are expected to have fallen by half a percent after a 0.7 per cent decline in the previous report. This data series has been in negative territory since June 2010 with one exception. Additionally, the past 3 months have been among the biggest losers, all with greater than 0.6 per cent declines. An hour later, we'll get February Consumer Confidence. The forecast of 63.0 is fairly close to December's 64.8 which was the the highest reading since 4/11. In fact, anything higher than 60 is on the bullish side of the prevailing range since mid-2008, which bottomed in 2/2009 at 25.3.
In addition to the economic data, the Fed is in for another round of Twist buying beginning at 10am, and Fed Governor Duke (voter) will testify at the Senate Budget Committee on Housing at the same time. Last but not least, potential European headlines are with us, as always. Between S&P lowering Greece to "selective default" status, the ongoing private sector debt swap efforts (S&P's contention is that an insufficient amount of participation in the swap would leave Greece unable to make ends meet), and Wednesday's Looming LTRO, there's plenty of potential for actual or speculative tape-bombs of various sizes.
|
Week Of Mon, Feb 27 2012 - Fri, Mar 2 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Feb 27 |
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|
10:00 |
PENDING HOME SALES |
Jan |
% |
+1.0 |
-3.5 |
+2.0 |
|
|
Pending homes index |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
95.1(R) |
97.0 |
|
Tue, Feb 28 |
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|
08:30 |
DURABLE GOODS |
Jan |
% |
-1.0 |
+3.0 |
-- |
|
|
Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft |
Jan |
% |
0.4 |
+3.1 |
-- |
|
|
excluding defense |
Jan |
% |
-1.0 |
3.5 |
-- |
|
|
excluding transportation |
Jan |
% |
0.0 |
2.2 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
CASE SHILLER 20 City |
Dec |
% |
-0.5 |
-0.7 |
-- |
|
|
CaseShiller 20 (Not Seasonally Adj.) |
Dec |
% |
-1.0 |
-1.3 |
-- |
|
|
CaseShiller 20 (annual) |
Dec |
% |
-3.7 |
-3.7 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE |
Feb |
-- |
63.0 |
61.1 |
-- |
|
Wed, Feb 29 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
MBA MORTGAGE INDEX |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
766.1 |
-- |
|
|
Mortgage market: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-4.5 |
-- |
|
|
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
161.8 |
-- |
|
|
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4322.0 |
-- |
|
|
Refinancing: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-4.8 |
-- |
|
|
MBA Purchase: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-2.9 |
-- |
|
|
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
-- |
4.09 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
REAL GDP |
Q4 |
% |
2.8 |
2.8 |
-- |
|
|
PCE prices |
Q4 |
% |
0.7 |
0.7 |
-- |
|
|
GDP sales |
Q4 |
% |
1.0 |
0.8 |
-- |
|
|
GDP deflator |
Q4 |
% |
0.4 |
0.4 |
-- |
|
|
PCE Price Index |
Q4 |
% |
0.7 |
0.7 |
-- |
|
09:45 |
CHICAGO PMI |
Feb |
-- |
61.3 |
60.2 |
-- |
| 10:00 | BERNANKE: FOMC's Semiannual Report to House Financial Services Committee | |||||
| 14:00 | Beige Book | |||||
|
Thu, Mar 1 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
PERSONAL INCOME |
Jan |
% |
0.4 |
0.5 |
-- |
|
|
Consumption, adjusted |
Jan |
% |
0.4 |
0.0 |
-- |
|
|
PCE price index |
Jan |
% |
0.2 |
0.1 |
-- |
|
|
Core PCE price index |
Jan |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
-- |
|
|
Real Personal Spending |
Jan |
% |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS |
w/e |
k |
353 |
351 |
-- |
|
|
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.40 |
3.392 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI |
Feb |
-- |
54.6 |
54.1 |
-- |
|
|
ISM Mfg Prices Paid |
Feb |
-- |
58.0 |
55.5 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING |
Jan |
% |
1.0 |
1.5 |
-- |
|
Fri, Mar 2 |
||||||
|
09:45 |
ISM-New York index |
Feb |
-- |
-- |
536.5 |
-- |