The Day Ahead: More Economic Data, LTRO/Bernanke Loom

By: Matthew Graham

After a Monday with only one major economic report, Tuesday's calendar is busier by comparison.  Additionally, Today's data has more more market-moving potential than yesterday's Pending Home Sales.  Even then, we wonder how keen markets will be to stray very far from recent ranges given the even heftier events on the horizon just one day later.  Those include not only GDP, Chicago PMI, and Bernanke's Congressional testimony, but Wednesday also sees round 2 of the ECB's Long Term Refinancing Operation, or LTRO.  But we'll discuss those events anon and stay focused on Tuesday for now.

Durable Goods lead off in the 8:30am time slot and are seen contracting by 1.0 per cent after a 3.0 per cent increase in the previous month.  Then at 9am Case Shiller Home Prices are expected to have fallen by half a percent after a 0.7 per cent decline in the previous report.  This data series has been in negative territory since June 2010 with one exception.  Additionally, the past 3 months have been among the biggest losers, all with greater than 0.6 per cent declines.  An hour later, we'll get February Consumer Confidence.  The forecast of 63.0 is fairly close to December's 64.8 which was the the highest reading since 4/11.  In fact, anything higher than 60 is on the bullish side of the prevailing range since mid-2008, which bottomed in 2/2009 at 25.3.

In addition to the economic data, the Fed is in for another round of Twist buying beginning at 10am, and Fed Governor Duke (voter) will testify at the Senate Budget Committee on Housing at the same time.  Last but not least, potential European headlines are with us, as always.  Between S&P lowering Greece to "selective default" status, the ongoing private sector debt swap efforts (S&P's contention is that an insufficient amount of participation in the swap would leave Greece unable to make ends meet), and Wednesday's Looming LTRO, there's plenty of potential for actual or speculative tape-bombs of various sizes.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Feb 27 2012 - Fri, Mar 2 2012

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Actual

Mon, Feb 27

10:00

PENDING HOME SALES

Jan

%

+1.0

-3.5

+2.0


Pending homes index

Jan

--

--

95.1(R)

97.0

 

Tue, Feb 28

08:30

DURABLE GOODS

Jan

%

-1.0

+3.0

--


Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft

Jan

%

0.4

+3.1

--


excluding defense

Jan

%

-1.0

3.5

--


excluding transportation

Jan

%

0.0

2.2

--

09:00

CASE SHILLER 20 City

Dec

%

-0.5

-0.7

--


CaseShiller 20 (Not Seasonally Adj.)

Dec

%

-1.0

-1.3

--


CaseShiller 20 (annual)

Dec

%

-3.7

-3.7

--

10:00

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Feb

--

63.0

61.1

--

Wed, Feb 29

07:00

MBA MORTGAGE INDEX

w/e

--

--

766.1

--


Mortgage market: change

w/e

%

--

-4.5

--


MBA Purchase Index

w/e

--

--

161.8

--


Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

--

4322.0

--


Refinancing: change

w/e

%

--

-4.8

--


MBA Purchase: change

w/e

%

--

-2.9

--


MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

--

4.09

--

08:30

REAL GDP

Q4

%

2.8

2.8

--


PCE prices

Q4

%

0.7

0.7

--


GDP sales

Q4

%

1.0

0.8

--


GDP deflator

Q4

%

0.4

0.4

--


PCE Price Index

Q4

%

0.7

0.7

--

09:45

CHICAGO PMI

Feb

--

61.3

60.2

--

10:00 BERNANKE: FOMC's Semiannual Report to House Financial Services Committee
14:00 Beige Book

Thu, Mar 1

08:30

PERSONAL INCOME

Jan

%

0.4

0.5

--


Consumption, adjusted

Jan

%

0.4

0.0

--


PCE price index

Jan

%

0.2

0.1

--


Core PCE price index

Jan

%

0.2

0.2

--


Real Personal Spending

Jan

%

0.3

-0.1

--

08:30

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS

w/e

k

353

351

--


Continued jobless claims

w/e

ml

3.40

3.392

--

10:00

ISM MANUFACTURING PMI

Feb

--

54.6

54.1

--


ISM Mfg Prices Paid

Feb

--

58.0

55.5

--

10:00

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING

Jan

%

1.0

1.5

--

Fri, Mar 2

09:45

ISM-New York index

Feb

--

--

536.5

--