The Day Ahead: Fed Speakers, Greek PSI, and Some Economic Data

By: Matthew Graham

In terms of economic data, the day kicks off with the more important of the two reports offered: Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.  The forecast calls for a minor improvement 72.5 to 73.0.  Mere minutes later at 10am is the New Home Sales report, expected to show an improvement from 307,000 to 315,000.  While housing/mortgage-related economic data is always interesting for copy-room conversation, we've come to be almost completely dismissive of the market-moving capabilities of any report with the words "home sales" in the title, with "new" being even less exciting than "existing."

That's not to say that markets will not move today.  In fact, quite a bit of volatility is possible, even if it's not probable.  Greece theoretically kicks off their efforts toward Private Sector Involvement in the current bailout.  Reuters has a great write-up on the festivities:

Greece bond restructuring set for Friday

LONDON, Feb 23 (IFR) - Private sector involvement (PSI) in the second Greek bailout is expected to get underway on Friday, according to sources, in an effort to write off EUR107bn of Greece's debt -- the biggest sovereign restructuring ever attempted.

The country's financial adviser is Lazard, but Deutsche Bank and HSBC are the dealer managers on the EUR206bn debt swap, which includes the controversial retroactive collective action clauses (CACs) approved by the Greek parliament.

Greece must get nearly all of the debt held in private hands to take part in the swap in order to start receiving the EUR130bn of bailout monies that was agreed this week.

READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE....

Whether or not we're likely to see any pertinent developments, we're not sure, but we could conceive a rather wide spectrum of bond market reaction depending on the nature of any headlines we do see. 

Add a few Fed speakers into the mix as well--four actually.  Voters Williams and Dudley at 10:45 and 1:30 respectively as well as non-voters Bullard and Plosser at 11:35 and 1:30 speaking at the 2012 US Monetary Policy Forum in NYC.  Much like the economic data earlier in the morning, we're not expecting much market-moving potential from the Fed speakers unless they say something that differs greatly from expectations.  With that in mind, Williams should be middle of the road, to slightly dovish, Plosser won't bash QE, but won't endorse any more due to "improving conditions," Bullard will similarly say more purchases aren't necessary unless things worsen, and might throw more jabs at MBS by saying the Fed's portfolio should be Treasuries only, and finally Dudley, in contrast, should be relatively unconcerned about inflation, and moderately concerned about housing and employment--certainly the most dovish of the group.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Tue, Feb 21 2012 - Fri, Feb 24 2012

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Actual

Tue, Feb 21

08:30

National Activity Index

Jan

--

--

0.17

+0.22

13:00

2-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

35.0

--

--

Wed, Feb 22

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

801.8

766.1

07:00

Mortgage market: change

w/e

%

--

-1.0%

-4.5

07:00

MBA Purchase Index

w/e

--

--

166.6

161.8

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

--

4538.0

4322.0

07:00

Refinancing: change

w/e

%

--

0.8%

-4.8

07:00

MBA Purchase: change

w/e

%

--

-8.4%

-2.9

07:00

MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

--

4.08%

4.09

10:00

Existing home sales

Jan

ml

4.65

4.61

4.57

10:00

Exist. home sales % chg

Jan

%

1.9%

5.0%

+4.3

13:00

5-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

35.0

--

--

Thu, Feb 23

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

354

351-R

351

08:30

Continued jobless claims

w/e

ml

3.46

3.426

3.392

10:00

Monthly Home Price mm

Dec

%

--

1.0%

0.7

10:00

Monthly Home Price yy

Dec

%

--

-1.8%

-0.8

11:00

KC Fed manufacturing

Feb

--

--

13

20

13:00

7-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

29.0

--

--

Fri, Feb 24

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

Feb

--

73.0

72.5

--

09:55

U Mich conditions

Feb

--

80.3

79.6

--

09:55

U.Mich expectation

Feb

--

68.5

68.0

--

10:00

New home sales-units mm

Jan

ml

.315

.307

--

10:00

New home sales chg mm

Jan

%

2.6%

--

--