The Day Ahead: Markets Ready To Discount Data As NFP Looms
Domestic economic data is in slightly shorter supply on Thursday after two more robust days. But what it lacks in sheer number of reports, it makes up for in other ways, such as scheduled Fed buying in Treasuries as well as 3 Fed speakers. Fisher and Evans are non-voters and generally represent the opposite ends of the FOMC's spectrum of hawkishness, meaning markets are well-able to predict what these two will say. Bernanke, however, is always a potential mover, and will be speaking tomorrow in front of the House Budget Committee.
Even so, the order of the day may well be waiting for tomorrow's Jobs data. With the possible exception of Consumer Confidence, we haven't seen much evidence that this week's economic reports have been significant drivers of trade. Scheduled Fed buying has been one of the most salient causes for movement on any given day, and beyond that, markets seem to have adopted a default bid for Treasuries and MBS until the next economically soothing/bullish "risk-on" European headline suggests a shift.
Both of this morning's reports hit at 830am. Productivity and Costs, both seen at +0.8, stood at +2.3 pct and -2.5 pct respectively last time. Economists polled by Reuters are expected Jobless Claims to hold relatively steady at 375k after a 377k reading last week.
MBS opened just over 1 tick higher this morning at 103-31 in Fannie 3.5's and 10yr yields are currently just under 1bp lower at 1.8212
|
Period |
Unit |
Actual |
Forecast |
Prior |
||
|
Monday, January 30 |
|
|||||
|
08:30 |
Personal consump real mm |
Dec |
% |
-0.1 |
+0.1 |
+0.1 |
|
08:30 |
Personal income mm |
Dec |
% |
+0.5 |
+0.4 |
+0.1 |
|
08:30 |
Consumption, adjusted mm |
Dec |
% |
0.0 |
-- |
+0.2 |
|
08:30 |
PCE price index mm |
Dec |
% |
+0.1 |
-- |
0.0 |
|
08:30 |
Core PCE price index mm |
Dec |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.1 |
+0.1 |
|
08:30 |
Midwest manufacturing |
Dec |
-- |
87.4 |
-- |
85.8 |
|
Tuesday, January 31 |
|
|||||
|
08:30 |
Employment costs |
Q4 |
% |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm nsa |
Dec |
% |
-1.3 |
-0.9 |
-1.2 |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 yy |
Dec |
% |
-3.7 |
-3.3 |
-3.4 |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm SA |
Dec |
% |
-0.7 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI Employment |
Jan |
-- |
54.7 |
-- |
59.2 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI Production |
Jan |
-- |
63.8 |
-- |
64.9 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI Prices Paid |
Jan |
-- |
62.4 |
-- |
63.8 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI New Orders |
Jan |
-- |
63.6 |
-- |
67.1 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI* |
Jan |
-- |
60.2 |
63.0 |
62.2 |
|
10:00 |
Consumer confidence |
Jan |
-- |
61.1 |
68.0 |
64.5 |
|
Wednesday, February 01 |
|
|||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
753.3 |
-- |
775.6 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market: change |
w/e |
% |
-2.9 |
-- |
-5.0 |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
181.7 |
-- |
184.8 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
4113.8 |
-- |
4265.3 |
|
07:00 |
Refinancing: change |
w/e |
% |
-3.6 |
-- |
-5.2 |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase: change |
w/e |
% |
-1.7 |
-- |
-5.4 |
|
07:00 |
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
4.09 |
-- |
4.11 |
|
07:15 |
ADP National Employment |
Jan |
k |
170 |
185 |
325 |
|
10:00 |
Construction spending |
Dec |
% |
+1.5 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
|
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Jan |
-- |
54.1 |
54.4 |
53.9 |
|
10:00 |
ISM Mfg Prices Paid |
Jan |
-- |
55.5 |
49.0 |
47.5 |
|
Thursday, February 02 |
|
|||||
|
07:30 |
Challenger layoffs |
Jan |
k |
-- |
-- |
41.7k |
|
08:30 |
Productivity |
Q4 |
% |
-- |
+0.8 |
+2.3 |
|
08:30 |
Unit Labor Costs |
Q4 |
% |
-- |
+0.8 |
-2.5 |
|
08:30 |
Claims 4-week Average |
w/e |
k |
-- |
-- |
377.5k |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
-- |
375 |
377 |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
-- |
3.56 |
3.554 |
|
Friday, February 03 |
|
|||||
|
08:30 |
Non-farm payrolls* |
Jan |
k |
-- |
150 |
200 |
|
08:30 |
Manufacturing payrolls |
Jan |
k |
-- |
13 |
23 |
|
08:30 |
Private Payrolls |
Jan |
k |
-- |
175 |
212 |
|
08:30 |
Unemployment rate mm |
Jan |
% |
-- |
8.5 |
8.5 |
|
08:30 |
Average workweek hrs |
Jan |
hr |
-- |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Dec |
% |
-- |
1.5 |
1.8 |
|
10:00 |
ISM N-Mfg Bus Act |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
56.0 |
56.2 |
|
10:00 |
ISM N-Mfg PMI |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
53.0 |
56.2 |