The Day Ahead: Economic Data Ramps Up, But Impact Questionable
Shortly after domestic markets closed on Monday, Greece's PM Lucas Papademos told reporters that hoped to conclude debt negotiations by the end of the week. In case that time frame makes you wonder whether or not these are the same debt negotiations that officials "hoped would be resolved by the end of the weekend," they are indeed! Markets appear all Greeced-out, however, as the news failed to motivate much, if any price action swings and/or volume. Timing likely plays a part in this, but much more important is the burgeoning sense that markets could seem to care less about more of the same songs and dances. It's almost as if "Troika" is the hypnotist's trigger word to make all of us fall into an apathetic slumber.
(Reuters) "Significant progress has been made in talks about private sector involvement," Papademos told reporters early on Tuesday following a meeting with senior officials from the European Central Bank and the EU after an EU leaders' summit. "We are seeking to conclude negotiations with the troika by the end of the week," he said, referring to the team of analysts from the ECB, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund who are responsible for monitoring Greece's progress in meeting budget deficit targets. Papademos said the major sticking points to be agreed with the troika were on deeper spending cuts and labour market reforms.
If domestic economic data stands a better chance than Greece-related newswires to stir the hearts and minds of market participants, you wouldn't have known it from Monday's flat and flavorless session (incidentally, we'll accept flat/flavorless sessions that contain MBS calmly trading at all-time highs). But Tuesday has a more robust schedule, including Q4 Employement costs, Case Shiller Home Prices, Chicago PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) and January Consumer Confidence. The other consideration with respect to economic data that fails to inspire much of a market reaction is that markets could naturally be waiting to react to Friday's jobs data.
Until then, we may merely see more ebbs and flows inside a range with Monday effectively constituting a resistance bounce (floor) for 10yr yield. 10's are up slightly this morning at 1.858 and MBS are getting the day started 2/32nds weaker at 103-21. S&P futures up about 6 points.
|
Period |
Unit |
Actual |
Forecast |
Prior |
||
|
Monday, January 30 |
|
|||||
|
08:30 |
Personal consump real mm |
Dec |
% |
-0.1 |
+0.1 |
+0.1 |
|
08:30 |
Personal income mm |
Dec |
% |
+0.5 |
+0.4 |
+0.1 |
|
08:30 |
Consumption, adjusted mm |
Dec |
% |
0.0 |
-- |
+0.2 |
|
08:30 |
PCE price index mm |
Dec |
% |
+0.1 |
-- |
0.0 |
|
08:30 |
Core PCE price index mm |
Dec |
% |
+0.2 |
+0.1 |
+0.1 |
|
08:30 |
Midwest manufacturing |
Dec |
-- |
87.4 |
-- |
85.8 |
|
Tuesday, January 31 |
|
|||||
|
08:30 |
Employment costs |
Q4 |
% |
-- |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm nsa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
-0.9 |
-1.2 |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 yy |
Dec |
% |
-- |
-3.3 |
-3.4 |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm SA |
Dec |
% |
-- |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI Employment |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
-- |
58.6 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI Production |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
-- |
66.2 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI Prices Paid |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
-- |
65.7 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI New Orders |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
-- |
68.0 |
|
09:45 |
Chicago PMI* |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
63.0 |
62.5 |
|
10:00 |
Consumer confidence |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
68.0 |
64.5 |
|
Wednesday, February 01 |
|
|||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
-- |
775.6 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-- |
-5.0 |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
-- |
184.8 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
-- |
4265.3 |
|
07:00 |
Refinancing: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-- |
-5.2 |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-- |
-5.4 |
|
07:00 |
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-- |
4.11 |
|
07:15 |
ADP National Employment |
Jan |
k |
-- |
185 |
325 |
|
10:00 |
Construction spending |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.7 |
1.2 |
|
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
54.4 |
53.9 |
|
10:00 |
ISM Mfg Prices Paid |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
49.0 |
47.5 |
|
Thursday, February 02 |
|
|||||
|
07:30 |
Challenger layoffs |
Jan |
k |
-- |
-- |
41.7k |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
-- |
370 |
377 |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
-- |
3.56 |
3.554 |
|
Friday, February 03 |
|
|||||
|
08:30 |
Non-farm payrolls* |
Jan |
k |
-- |
150 |
200 |
|
08:30 |
Manufacturing payrolls |
Jan |
k |
-- |
13 |
23 |
|
08:30 |
Private Payrolls |
Jan |
k |
-- |
175 |
212 |
|
08:30 |
Unemployment rate mm |
Jan |
% |
-- |
8.5 |
8.5 |
|
08:30 |
Average workweek hrs |
Jan |
hr |
-- |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Dec |
% |
-- |
1.5 |
1.8 |
|
10:00 |
ISM N-Mfg Bus Act |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
56.0 |
56.2 |
|
10:00 |
ISM N-Mfg PMI |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
53.0 |
56.2 |