The Day Ahead: Economic Data Ramps Up, But Impact Questionable

By: Matthew Graham

Shortly after domestic markets closed on Monday, Greece's PM Lucas Papademos told reporters that hoped to conclude debt negotiations by the end of the week.  In case that time frame makes you wonder whether or not these are the same debt negotiations that officials "hoped would be resolved by the end of the weekend," they are indeed!  Markets appear all Greeced-out, however, as the news failed to motivate much, if any price action swings and/or volume.  Timing likely plays a part in this, but much more important is the burgeoning sense that markets could seem to care less about more of the same songs and dances.  It's almost as if "Troika" is the hypnotist's trigger word to make all of us fall into an apathetic slumber.

(Reuters) "Significant progress has been made in talks about private sector involvement," Papademos told reporters early on Tuesday following a meeting with senior officials from the European Central Bank and the EU after an EU leaders' summit.  "We are seeking to conclude negotiations with the troika by the end of the week," he said, referring to the team of analysts from the ECB, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund who are responsible for monitoring Greece's progress in meeting budget deficit targets.  Papademos said the major sticking points to be agreed with the troika were on deeper spending cuts and labour market reforms.

If domestic economic data stands a better chance than Greece-related newswires to stir the hearts and minds of market participants, you wouldn't have known it from Monday's flat and flavorless session (incidentally, we'll accept flat/flavorless sessions that contain MBS calmly trading at all-time highs).  But Tuesday has a more robust schedule, including Q4 Employement costs, Case Shiller Home Prices, Chicago PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) and January Consumer Confidence.  The other consideration with respect to economic data that fails to inspire much of a market reaction is that markets could naturally be waiting to react to Friday's jobs data.

Until then, we may merely see more ebbs and flows inside a range with Monday effectively constituting a resistance bounce (floor) for 10yr yield.  10's are up slightly this morning at 1.858 and MBS are getting the day started 2/32nds weaker at 103-21. S&P futures up about 6 points.



Period

Unit

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Monday, January 30


 


08:30

Personal consump real mm

Dec

%

-0.1

+0.1

+0.1

08:30

Personal income mm

Dec

%

+0.5

+0.4

+0.1

08:30

Consumption, adjusted mm

Dec

%

0.0

--

+0.2

08:30

PCE price index mm

Dec

%

+0.1

--

0.0

08:30

Core PCE price index mm

Dec

%

+0.2

+0.1

+0.1

08:30

Midwest manufacturing

Dec

--

87.4

--

85.8

Tuesday, January 31


 


08:30

Employment costs

Q4

%

--

0.4

0.3

09:00

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa

Dec

%

--

-0.9

-1.2

09:00

CaseShiller 20 yy

Dec

%

--

-3.3

-3.4

09:00

CaseShiller 20 mm SA

Dec

%

--

-0.5

-0.6

09:45

Chicago PMI Employment

Jan

--

--

--

58.6

09:45

Chicago PMI Production

Jan

--

--

--

66.2

09:45

Chicago PMI Prices Paid

Jan

--

--

--

65.7

09:45

Chicago PMI New Orders

Jan

--

--

--

68.0

09:45

Chicago PMI*

Jan

--

--

63.0

62.5

10:00

Consumer confidence

Jan

--

--

68.0

64.5

Wednesday, February 01


 


07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

--

775.6

07:00

Mortgage market: change

w/e

%

--

--

-5.0

07:00

MBA Purchase Index

w/e

--

--

--

184.8

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

--

--

4265.3

07:00

Refinancing: change

w/e

%

--

--

-5.2

07:00

MBA Purchase: change

w/e

%

--

--

-5.4

07:00

MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

--

--

4.11

07:15

ADP National Employment

Jan

k

--

185

325

10:00

Construction spending

Dec

%

--

0.7

1.2

10:00

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Jan

--

--

54.4

53.9

10:00

ISM Mfg Prices Paid

Jan

--

--

49.0

47.5

Thursday, February 02


 


07:30

Challenger layoffs

Jan

k

--

--

41.7k

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

--

370

377

08:30

Continued jobless claims

w/e

ml

--

3.56

3.554

Friday, February 03


 


08:30

Non-farm payrolls*

Jan

k

--

150

200

08:30

Manufacturing payrolls

Jan

k

--

13

23

08:30

Private Payrolls

Jan

k

--

175

212

08:30

Unemployment rate mm

Jan

%

--

8.5

8.5

08:30

Average workweek hrs

Jan

hr

--

34.4

34.4

10:00

Factory Orders

Dec

%

--

1.5

1.8

10:00

ISM N-Mfg Bus Act

Jan

--

--

56.0

56.2

10:00

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Jan

--

--

53.0

56.2