Mortgage Rates Return To Historic Lows Following FOMC Announcement

By: Matthew Graham •

Mortgages Rates spent 2 days at 4.0% in terms of rounded average "Best-Execution" rates (for detail on what that means, READ THIS POST from a few days ago).  Today, that rounded average has returned to 3.875%.  Although the underlying average isn't as low as it's ever been (3.88 vs 3.82), lenders tend to price loans in 1/8th (.125%) increments, meaning that 3.875% has been the lowest sustainable best-execution rate.  In short, we're back to the promised land. 

The improvements came on the heels of today's FOMC Announcement (Federal Open Market Committee or simply "The Fed") which surprised some market participants with it's inclusion of new verbiage describing how long the Fed anticipated that it would keep its "Fed Funds Rate" at so-called "exceptionally low levels."  Until today, this verbiage read "through mid-2013," but is now changed to "through late-2014."  Markets weren't necessarily expecting the inclusion of the word "late," and although mortgage rates would have likely improved with a simple mention of 2014, the "late" part added fuel to that fire.  

 See Rates from Lenders in Your Area

While this indeed breaks the sideways trend at higher rates over the past 2 days, it's up to the rest of the week to solidify the rebound.  In essence, markets will have an opportunity to respond to the eternal question: "is that your final answer."  While the data through the end of the week doesn't possess the gravity of today's FOMC announcement, it could be enough to nudge the Best-Execution rate back to 4.0% depending on how it's received.  In that sense, the risk posed by one singular event today is replaced by the risk posed by a group of events tomorrow and Friday.  3.875% is just barely back in the picture today, but it's too soon to say whether or not the past two days at 4.0% were the exception to a long-term trend, or the beginning of a new one. 

Today's BEST-EXECUTION Rates

  • 30YR FIXED -  3.875% mostly, with a few lenders at 4.0% still
  • FHA/VA -3.75%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375% and more 3.25's
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.625-3.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Rates and costs continue to operate near all time best levels
  • Current levels have experienced increasing resistance in improving much from here
  • There are technical reasons for that as well as fundamental reasons
  • Lenders tend to get busier when rates are in this "high 3's" level and can throttle their inbound volume by raising rates or costs.
  • While we don't necessarily think rates are destined to go higher, given the above facts, there seems to be more risk than reward regarding floating
  • But that will always be the case when rates operating near historic lows