The Day Ahead: Robust Economic Data Offerings, Ongoing Euro-Headline Potential
Bond markets traded almost exclusive sideways in the overnight session after reaching their weakest levels of the day late yesterday. This went on in fairly uneventful fashion despite several sovereign debt auctions being well received, including one of the several powder-keg countries: Spain. But the incremental weakness looks to be exclusively attributable to an upbeat ECB President Mario Draghi speaking in Abu Dhabi and generally touting the benefits of recent measures, confirming progress that's ostensibly been made, and communicating an improved outlook moving forward. More than any one thing he said, it was perhaps the broader shift in "tone" that was most striking. This Mario Draghi appeared to be talking about something different--delivering something other than a eulogy for a dying economy and spiralling debt crisis.
If this is all too mystical for you, there's plenty of good, old-fashioned economic data on tap momentarily, starting with the weekly standy Jobless Claims at 830, joined by December CPI and Housing Starts this morning. Philly Fed prints at 10am, and though it's not something we normally track or something to which we give much credence as an MBS mover, there's a 10yr TIPS auction at 1pm to be aware of inasmuch as it presents a debt supply requirement.
|
Period |
Unit |
Actual |
Forecast |
Prior |
||
|
Tuesday, January 17 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jan |
-- |
+13.48 |
+11.0 |
+9.53 |
|
Wednesday, January 18 |
||||||
| 07:00 |
Mortgage market index (No Survey 12/28) |
w/e |
-- |
816.1 |
-- |
663.1 |
| 07:00 |
Mortgage market: change |
w/e |
% |
23.1% |
-- |
4.5% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
195.4 |
-- |
177.1 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
4500.6 |
-- |
3560.6 |
|
07:00 |
Refinancing: change |
w/e |
% |
26.4% |
-- |
3.3% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase: change |
w/e |
% |
10.3% |
-- |
8.1% |
|
07:00 |
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
4.06% |
-- |
4.11% |
|
07:00 |
Producer prices, core mm |
Dec |
% |
0.3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
07:00 |
Producer prices, core yy |
Dec |
% |
3.0 |
2.8% |
2.9% |
|
07:00 |
PPI inflation yy, NSA |
Dec |
% |
4.8 |
5.1% |
5.7% |
|
07:00 |
Producer prices mm |
Dec |
% |
-0.1 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
07:00 |
Overall net capital flows |
Nov |
bl |
+48.6 |
-- |
-48.8b |
|
07:00 |
Foreign buying, T-bonds |
Nov |
bl |
54.0 |
-- |
7.6b |
|
07:00 |
Net L-T flows,exswaps |
Nov |
bl |
59.8 |
-- |
4.8b |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Dec |
% |
78.1 |
78.1% |
77.8% |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Dec |
% |
+0.4 |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Jan |
-- |
25 |
21 |
21 |
|
Thursday, January 19 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Jobless claims 4-wk avg |
w/e |
k |
-- |
-- |
381.75 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI index, sa |
Dec |
-- |
-- |
-- |
226.840 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI yy, nsa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
08:30 |
CPI mm, sa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, sa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
08:30 |
CPI yy, nsa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
3.0% |
3.4% |
|
08:30 |
CPI index, nsa |
Dec |
-- |
-- |
225.85 |
226.23 |
|
08:30 |
Real weekly earnings mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Dec |
ml |
-- |
.680m |
.685m |
|
08:30 |
House starts mm: change |
Dec |
% |
-- |
<-1% |
9.3% |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Dec |
ml |
-- |
.680m |
.680m |
|
08:30 |
Build permits: change mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0% |
5.6% |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
-- |
385k |
399k |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
-- |
3.603m |
3.628m |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Business Index |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
10.0 |
10.3 |
|
Friday, January 20 |
||||||
|
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
Dec |
ml |
-- |
4.65m |
4.42m |
|
10:00 |
Exist. home sales % chg |
Dec |
% |
-- |
+4.1% |
+4.0 |