The Day Ahead: Mid-Tier Economic Data, Digesting EU-Related Headlines
The big story overnight cited an anonymous source within the IMF as saying the fund is proposing to boost its resources by $1 Trillion dollars. Shortly thereafter, that figure was corrected to $500 billion, which was just before it was again clarified as being more appropriately $600 billion. The point of confusion on this aspect was apparently due to sources from the IMF discussion saying the $500 bln component is for lending to member countries with another $100 bln as a "protective buffer." The point of confusions on the intial claim of $1 trl dollar boosts was apparently due to IMF sources estimating a $1 trln global financing gap over the next two years if global economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
As one might expect, the initial "$1 trln" report helped fuel some "risk-on" type trading, favoring stocks and negative for bond markets, but the $500 bln correction along with what seems to be a burgeoning skepticism over high-dollar bailout fund increase announcements soon saw Treasuries correct back to yesterday's latest levels from the domestic session. That has 10yr yields around 1.855 at the moment while MBS are trading 1 tick lower at 103-03 in Fannie 3.5's. S&P futures are up 3-4 points.
The first major economic data of the morning comes in the form of the Producer Price Index, a measure of inflation at the producer level, but with ongoing signs of inflation being relatively contained, this report hasn't had the same sort of impact that it did in the past. Mortgage Applications surged in the MBA report earlier this morning and 10am brings the NAHB Housing Market Index
|
Period |
Unit |
Actual |
Forecast |
Prior |
||
|
Tuesday, January 17 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jan |
-- |
+13.48 |
+11.0 |
+9.53 |
|
Wednesday, January 18 |
||||||
| 07:00 |
Mortgage market index (No Survey 12/28) |
w/e |
-- |
816.1 |
-- |
663.1 |
| 07:00 |
Mortgage market: change |
w/e |
% |
23.1% |
-- |
4.5% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
195.4 |
-- |
177.1 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
4500.6 |
-- |
3560.6 |
|
07:00 |
Refinancing: change |
w/e |
% |
26.4% |
-- |
3.3% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase: change |
w/e |
% |
10.3% |
-- |
8.1% |
|
07:00 |
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
4.06% |
-- |
4.11% |
|
07:00 |
Producer prices, core mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
07:00 |
Producer prices, core yy |
Dec |
% |
-- |
2.8% |
2.9% |
|
07:00 |
PPI inflation yy, NSA |
Dec |
% |
-- |
5.1% |
5.7% |
|
07:00 |
Producer prices mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
07:00 |
Overall net capital flows |
Nov |
bl |
-- |
-- |
-48.8b |
|
07:00 |
Foreign buying, T-bonds |
Nov |
bl |
-- |
-- |
7.6b |
|
07:00 |
Net L-T flows,exswaps |
Nov |
bl |
-- |
-- |
4.8b |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
78.1% |
77.8% |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
21 |
21 |
|
Thursday, January 19 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Jobless claims 4-wk avg |
w/e |
k |
-- |
-- |
381.75 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI index, sa |
Dec |
-- |
-- |
-- |
226.840 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI yy, nsa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
08:30 |
CPI mm, sa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, sa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
08:30 |
CPI yy, nsa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
3.0% |
3.4% |
|
08:30 |
CPI index, nsa |
Dec |
-- |
-- |
225.85 |
226.23 |
|
08:30 |
Real weekly earnings mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Dec |
ml |
-- |
.680m |
.685m |
|
08:30 |
House starts mm: change |
Dec |
% |
-- |
<-1% |
9.3% |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Dec |
ml |
-- |
.680m |
.680m |
|
08:30 |
Build permits: change mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0% |
5.6% |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
-- |
385k |
399k |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
-- |
3.603m |
3.628m |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Business Index |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
10.0 |
10.3 |
|
Friday, January 20 |
||||||
|
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
Dec |
ml |
-- |
4.65m |
4.42m |
|
10:00 |
Exist. home sales % chg |
Dec |
% |
-- |
+4.1% |
+4.0 |