The Week Ahead: Housing, Inflation Data Help Fill Shortened Week
MBS are off to an uneventful start this morning, quickly capturing back some of the losses that took them near the lows of Friday's session. Similarly, 10yr yields bounced off a supportive ceiling in line with Friday's highs. Stock futures were up sharply, at one point cresting the 1300 mark in S&P's, but bounced lower at the same time Treasuries put in their high yields of the morning and currently sit at 1227.5. Here's a look at MBS Levels across the stack from MBS Live.
The fact that stock futures and bond yields are moving with strong correlation this morning speaks to the broader theme this week of a market that isn't planning on receiving much by way of earth-moving data or information. There's a fair amount of domestic economic reports, but with many of them relating either to inflation or housing, no major market movers (of course, the eternal caveat remains that a report that deviates enough from consensus can always have an effect). Additionally, things don't really pick up until tomorrow and to a greater extent, Thursday.
Today's only scheduled report of any significance: NY Fed Manufacturing already printed slightly stronger than expected, but markets were pre-occupied with getting levels back in line (and inside) Friday's range as volume rapidly gets caught up following a day off yesterday. There's no Treasury issuance, other than an inconsequential TIPS auction, no scheduled Fed speeches, and no Treasury Auctions, although next week's auction amounts will be announced on Thursday. The week's full economic calendar follows and will be updated to include previous day's results each morning.
|
Period |
Unit |
Actual |
Forecast |
Prior |
||
|
Tuesday, January 17 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jan |
-- |
+13.48 |
+11.0 |
+9.53 |
|
Wednesday, January 18 |
||||||
| 07:00 |
Mortgage market index (No Survey 12/28) |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
-- |
663.1 |
| 07:00 |
Mortgage market: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-- |
4.5% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
-- |
177.1 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
-- |
3560.6 |
|
07:00 |
Refinancing: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-- |
3.3% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase: change |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-- |
8.1% |
|
07:00 |
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
-- |
-- |
4.11% |
|
07:00 |
Producer prices, core mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
07:00 |
Producer prices, core yy |
Dec |
% |
-- |
2.8% |
2.9% |
|
07:00 |
PPI inflation yy, NSA |
Dec |
% |
-- |
5.1% |
5.7% |
|
07:00 |
Producer prices mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
07:00 |
Overall net capital flows |
Nov |
bl |
-- |
-- |
-48.8b |
|
07:00 |
Foreign buying, T-bonds |
Nov |
bl |
-- |
-- |
7.6b |
|
07:00 |
Net L-T flows,exswaps |
Nov |
bl |
-- |
-- |
4.8b |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
78.1% |
77.8% |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
21 |
21 |
|
Thursday, January 19 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Jobless claims 4-wk avg |
w/e |
k |
-- |
-- |
381.75 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI index, sa |
Dec |
-- |
-- |
-- |
226.840 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI yy, nsa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
08:30 |
CPI mm, sa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, sa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
08:30 |
CPI yy, nsa |
Dec |
% |
-- |
3.0% |
3.4% |
|
08:30 |
CPI index, nsa |
Dec |
-- |
-- |
225.85 |
226.23 |
|
08:30 |
Real weekly earnings mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Dec |
ml |
-- |
.680m |
.685m |
|
08:30 |
House starts mm: change |
Dec |
% |
-- |
<-1% |
9.3% |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Dec |
ml |
-- |
.680m |
.680m |
|
08:30 |
Build permits: change mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
0% |
5.6% |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
-- |
385k |
399k |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
-- |
3.603m |
3.628m |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Business Index |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
10.0 |
10.3 |
|
Friday, January 20 |
||||||
|
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
Dec |
ml |
-- |
4.65m |
4.42m |
|
10:00 |
Exist. home sales % chg |
Dec |
% |
-- |
+4.1% |
+4.0 |