The Day Ahead: Retail Sales and Week's Last Big Treasury Auction
Stocks are moderately higher overnight, led by European averages after much better-than-expected debt auctions in Spain and Hungary. S&P futures rose as much as 10 points, but have since backed off 3-4. Bond yields rose as well, but the movement was much more contained with 10yr yields only climbing to 1.93 and are now back down to 1.92. Fannie 3.5's are in the middle of yesterday's range at 102-29.
Today is the first morning with some significant economic data. The much-anticipated December Retail Sales hits at 830am along with weekly Jobless Claims. The former is expected to have risen 0.3% after a 0.2% rise last month, while claims are seen at 375k versus a previous reading of 372k. The last major auction of the week hits at 1pm with 30yr bonds.
|
Period |
Unit |
Actual |
Forecast |
Prior |
||
|
Monday, January 09 |
|
|
||||
|
15:00 |
Consumer credit |
Nov |
$bln |
20.37 |
+7.00b |
+7.65b |
|
Tuesday, January 10 |
|
|
||||
|
10:00 |
Wholesale inventories mm |
Nov |
% |
+.01 |
+0.4% |
+1.6% |
|
10:00 |
Wholesale sales mm |
Nov |
% |
+.06 |
+0.6% |
+0.9% |
|
13:00 |
3-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
Wednesday, January 11 |
|
|
||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index (No Survey 12/28) |
w/e |
-- |
663.1 |
-- |
634.6 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market: change |
w/e |
% |
4.5 |
-- |
-4.1% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
177.1 |
-- |
163.9 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
3560.6 |
-- |
3448.3 |
|
07:00 |
Refinancing: change |
w/e |
% |
3.3 |
-- |
-2.5% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase: change |
w/e |
% |
8.1 |
-- |
-9.6% |
|
07:00 |
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
4.11 |
-- |
4.07% |
|
01:00 |
10-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Thursday, January 12 |
|
|
||||
|
08:30 |
Retail Sales mm |
Dec |
pct |
-- |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
|
08:30 |
Retail Sales Ex Autos |
Dec |
pct |
-- |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
-- |
375k |
372k |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
$mln |
-- |
3.59 m |
3.595 m |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
Nov |
% |
-- |
+0.4% |
+0.8% |
|
13:00 |
30-Yr Bond Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
14:00 |
Federal budget, $ |
Dec |
$bln |
-- |
-82.5b |
-137.3b |
|
Friday, January 13 |
|
|
||||
|
08:30 |
International Trade |
Nov |
$bln |
-- |
-45.0 |
-43.47 |
|
08:30 |
Import Prices |
Dec |
% |
-- |
-0.1 |
+0.7 |
|
08:30 |
Export prices mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
+0.1 |
+0.1 |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
71.5 |
69.9 |
|
09:55 |
U Mich conditions |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
80.2 |
79.6 |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich expectation |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
65.0 |
63.6 |