MBS Bounce Back From AM Weakness. Excitement Lacking
There's a palpable lack of excitement in bond markets today despite improving volume. One might consider the highest S&P levels in more than 4 months somewhat exciting, but apart from not being a bond-market phenomenon, stocks are just sort of grinding against that 1280's/1290's ceiling without much of a convicted move higher. Either way, bond markets are doing their best to shrug off the implications of rising stocks, something they've excelled at since the Euro-crisis began to pick up steam in Q411.
None of the data this morning has been impressive and has done little to motivate the price action, playing second fiddle to the EU "risk-on" trade brought on by overnight events already mentioned as well as recent comments on Greece's prospects for survival from EU's Rehn as well as comments on a solution for Hungary from the ECB's Nowotny. Apart from from this, dealer positioning/re-positioning ahead of the 3yr Auction today and 10yr Auction tomorrow balanced with various daily Fed POMO's and the technical backdrop is enough to keep things exceedingly boring. But perhaps that will change soon? Even if we don't take a quantum leap of excitement, perhaps the triangle forming below will break by tomorrow afternoon and give way at least to a test of some horizontal range boundary:
But if it does, would MBS care much? They've been fairly happy to hold their ground versus Treasury gyrations to a greater extent than normal. Today is a good example where they're contained within yesterday's range and seeking the two-day midpoint despite 10yr yields morning spent in weaker territory than their respective range yesterday: