The Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes and Jobs Data Ahead, Omnipresent European Threat

Although we begin another week with only four trading days, the week ahead is a different breed than the last few of December, which for the most part, were low in volume, progressively lighter in participation, and questionably representative of the trading sentiments of a more active market.  This is to be expected for December trading, just as an emergence from that tunnel is to be expected for the first week back from various holidays.  Indeed that "emergence" seems to already be in progress with overnight Treasuries volumes slightly higher than last weeks paltry sums and more importantly, accelerating at a better pace.  10yr Futures Contracts have already eclipsed the 100k mark, a feat which wasn't accomplished until much later in the morning on several occasions last week, even if it still isn't on pace with "normal" volume.

Rounding out the list of things "to-be-expected" is this groggy-eyed increase of volume and activity.  It may take markets and market participants a few hours to shake off the holiday break, but that should give way to a "business as usual" sort of vibe in short order.  I'd expect this to happen for a few reasons with the most obvious one being the simple fact that the holidays are over and year/month-end trading considerations are behind us.  Moreover, this week's economic calendar should help to motivate a decent level of activity in and of itself.  ISM Manufacturing and FOMC Minutes from the December 13th meeting hit today, and the week culminates with December's Employment Situation Report.  Although there's no major change to the recently prevailing generality of European events acting as the primary driver of domestic trade, we've nonetheless witnessed a respectable amount of market moving potential from some of our more potent pieces of economic data, and NFP (shorthand for Friday's jobs report), is about as potent as they come.  Here's the full run down with the previous results as well as the median estimates among economists polled by Reuters: