The Week Ahead: Low Volume, Limited Data, Light Participation, and Holiday-Shortened (Again)

By: Matthew Graham

Last week saw a steep sell-off in bond markets as low volume and a limited amount of participation paved the way for domination by whichever side of the trade showed up in greater numbers.  It turned out to be "the sellers" leading up to the Christmas Holiday in the US, but as we said then and will continue to say this week, we can't really read much into trading levels and ostensible directional sentiment based on this year-end, illiquid trading.

This week promises to be similar to the last in the sense that light volume and liquidity could give way either to periods of apathetic sideways movements punctuated by exaggerated swings, but neither being motivated by anything especially meaningful or alarming.  With the US Holiday just passed, another on the way this weekend, a shortened trading day on Friday, and even a UK Holiday today (Boxing Day), many market participants will simply extend last week's theme of "the trading year being over."  This week sees some more harmony between that fact and the economic calendar (thankfully).  Whereas last week contained a round of Treasury Auctions as well as a fair bit of data into the last 2 days, this week's economic calendar will work in more harmony with the general tenor of another holiday-shortened week.

Today's key release will come in the form of Consumer Confidence at 10am, although Case Shiller Home Prices are forthcoming.  Tomorrow will be completely dead in terms of market movers with only MBA mortgage application data.  The only other data of any significance comes on Thursday with Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales.  Friday's reports are relative non-events and Bond Markets are scheduled to close at an earlier-than-normal 2pm Eastern.

Time


Period

Unit

Forecast

Previous

Tuesday, December 27


09:00

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa

Oct

%

-0.5%

-0.6%

09:00

CaseShiller 20 yy

Oct

%

-3.2%

-3.6%

09:00

CaseShiller 20 mm SA

Oct

%

-0.4%

-0.6%

10:00

Consumer confidence

Dec

--

58.3

56.0

Wednesday, December 28


07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

659.3

07:00

Mortgage market: change

w/e

%

--

-2.6%

07:00

MBA Purchase Index

w/e

--

--

181.6

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

--

3516.8

07:00

Refinancing: change

w/e

%

--

-1.6%

07:00

MBA Purchase: change

w/e

%

--

-4.9%

07:00

MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

--

4.08%

Thursday, December 29


08:30

Jobless claims 4-wk avg

w/e

k

--

380.25k

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

375k

364k

08:30

Continued jobless claims

w/e

ml

3.555m

3.546m

10:00

Pending sales change mm

Nov

%

2.0%

10.4%

10:00

Pending homes index

Nov

--

--

93.3

Friday, December 30


08:30

ISM-New York index

Dec

--

--

533.5

10:30

ECRI weekly index

w/e

--

--

121.3

SIFMA Recommended Early Close For Bond Markets at 02:00pm Eastern