MBS MID-DAY: 12/14/2011

By: Matthew Graham
MBS Live: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
102-19 : +0-08
FNMA 4.0
104-23 : +0-05
FNMA 4.5
106-08 : +0-03
FNMA 5.0
107-32 : +0-03
GNMA 3.5
104-11 : +0-09
GNMA 4.0
107-06 : +0-05
GNMA 4.5
109-04 : +0-04
GNMA 5.0
110-19 : +0-04
FHLMC 3.5
102-14 : +0-08
FHLMC 4.0
104-19 : +0-05
FHLMC 4.5
105-25 : +0-02
FHLMC 5.0
107-11 : +0-01
Pricing as of 11:01 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
8:34AM  :  ALERT: Extremely Quiet Overnight Session. Low Volume, Tight Ranges.
Domestic bond markets are beginning the day in generally the same territory as yesterday's close. Fannie 3.5's are unchanged, as are 10yr yields. Stock futures are within a point of their 4pm levels from yesterday as well. We rarely see all 3 of these markets pull this off, and on such occasions, there's a chance that the 3 instances of "unchanged" are merely serendipitous stopping points after a choppy overnight session.

Last night was anything but choppy. 10's stayed in a range of 1.96 to 1.99 and S&P futures never moved more than 5 pts in either direction from current levels. To top it all off, volume was quite light.

The quietness isn't for lack of tradeable data. Some highlights:

-German Cabinet agreed to re-up their "Soffin" bank rescue fund

- EU Industrial Output is +1.3% year-over year vs +2.1% forecast

-Italy's 5yr auction set a Euro-Era high at 6.47 vs 6.29

-The head of Italy's biggest union said the country's at risk of "social explosion" over recent austerity measures

and a Reuters poll shows about 50% of economists think the Fed will do a QE3 in 2012

The most entertaining newswire, hitting earlier this morning would have to be from IMF's Blanchard, who seems to have stated the obvious in discussing the various policy-based responses the EU has to the current crisis:

"Learning how to use all these tools is incredible complex."

Amen Blanchard... Amen.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Ken Crute  :  "got about .125% better than after yesterdays .25 reprice "
AQ  :  "cannot emphasize that enough"
AQ  :  "ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzZZZZZZzzzzzzzz...."
MMNJ  :  "we are probably 33% purchase / 67% refi"
Victor Burek  :  "but with the holidays...many clients looking forward to skipping 2 payments, get a escrow refund..or if they dont escrow, they are rolling their tax bill is cause they dont have the money saved to pay them"
Victor Burek  :  "i got 1 purchase loan going..about 15 to 20 refis"
Ira Selwin  :  "Not sure about you VB, but fair amount of purchase business here as well. Dec is 49% purchases here"
Gaius Rossini  :  "you'd think with the holidays refis would die down a bit and pick up again in january"
Victor Burek  :  "4.875 and higher"
Ira Selwin  :  "Our December so far has been better than Sept as well."
Gaius Rossini  :  "what rates are people refi'ing from?"
Victor Burek  :  "mainly doing no cost refis to past clients...4.375 with no costs is aa better deal than 3.875 with costs"
Gaius Rossini  :  "any thoughts on what segments that's coming from?"
Victor Burek  :  "dec might be my best month all year"
Gaius Rossini  :  "you guys have been working hard - refi index up 9.3% week over week"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. NOV IMPORT PRICES RISE FIRST INCREASE SINCE JULY, LARGEST SINCE APRIL (+2.6 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. NOV NON-PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES -0.2 PCT, YEAR-OVER-YEAR +3.7 PCT "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. NOV PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES +3.6 PCT VS OCT -1.1 PCT "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. NOV EXPORT PRICES +0.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.3 PCT) VS OCT -2.1 PCT (PREV -2.1 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. NOV IMPORT PRICES +0.7 PCT (CONS. +0.9 PCT) VS OCT -0.5 PCT (PREV -0.6 PCT) "
Dean Gorenflo  :  "tsys really improved since 6:30. Back to even and trying to go green"