Bond Markets Near Best Levels. Auction/FOMC Loom
10yr yields have experienced only a slight benefit from earlier news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected the notion of raising the upper limits of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Some have speculated that the ESM could be beefed up beyond it's current €500 billion ceiling by the time it goes into effect in the middle of next year. US 10yr yields have shared a moderate degree of correlation with the Euro, which sold-off massively on the news.
But the 10yr Note Auction and the FOMC Announcement shortly thereafter seem to be keeping a lid on bond market gains for now. Although you can see the small but sharp rally lower in yield around 10:30AM in the chart below from MBS Live, you'll also note that yields have generally been contending with the resistance around 2.035.
Although we could see things gradually grind a bit lower in yield or see MBS grind a bit higher in price, for now, it feels like that could be limited until afternoon events have transpired (auction at 1pm, FOMC at 215pm). The extent to which the 10yr is resisting the sharp move in the Euro supports that notion.