Treasuries Consolidate While MBS Hold Previous Gains

Today turned out to be fairly uneventful for Treasuries which turned out to make the day mostly positive for MBS.  Perhaps some more hinting at potential MBS-Focused QE3 from the Fed's Yellen helped MBS tighten a bit more than they otherwise might.  Fannie 3.5's managed to put in a solid day of gains by 3pm and are still in the green as opposed to Treasuries, which are weaker and weaker as one moves out in maturities.  All of the above can be seen in the chart below:

Despite the "inside day" noted above in 10yr Treasuries, things are still fairly volatile compared to stocks.

If we take stocks out of that chart and look just at Treasuries, the big swings to begin this week are still occurring within the 2.07-1.95 range, and thus far have been consolidating a bit.  The teal lines below show the consolidating highs and lows.  One of these will probably break before NFP Friday, and when that happens, the technical suggestion would be for the red lines to be the next test (depending on which teal line was broken).

The potentially consolidating trends in MBS, however, have plenty of room to remain intact between now and NFP.  The question is whether or not these are actually the the trends or whether the more recent horizontal support and resistance levels at 101-16 and 102-03 respectively will be more relevant.  Our take on it is that it doesn't matter too much.  Besides, 101-16 has seen recent enough technical support that it makes sense to continue to use that as a lock indication (if prices move lower).  But above all else, and even though EU headlines are very important, Friday's Jobs report can take MBS and Treasuries well outside either of these ranges.