Epic Stock Market Consolidation. MBS/Treasuries Sideways And Uncertain

MBS came under some pressure this afternoon, prompting the following alert from MBS Live:

MBS Fall To Lowest Levels Since 9am. Potential Negative Reprices? 1:49PM

This is one of those frustrating-to-write alerts which also might be frustrating to read. In and of itself, a 101-21 price in MBS probably wouldn't justify a reprice for the worse, but given the manner in which it stands out as a clear recent low on the two day chart combined with the utter rapidity of the swing in the risk-on trade makes it possible that a few early-to-act lenders could reprice for the worse, possibly more if current weakness is sustained or if prices slip down to, say 101-18. 

this is an early warning... Fannie 3.5's already bounced to 101-23 and it remains to be seen if stocks, TSY yields, and MBS selling will have a quick turn-around here. First risk level = sustained move under 101-23 in Fannie 3.5's. Second risk level = hitting 101-18. Most pronounced reprice risk at 101-16.

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We saw one lender reprice on that weakness and although the narrow trading range keeps the risks on the light side, the 101-23 pivot point is continuing to be a bit troublesome.

But rather than see this as some sort of shift weaker in MBS, it seems that the broader theme at play is one of consolidation and indecision.  Treasuries have been doing that sideways thing they tend to do during periods of uncertainty where yields remain contained within ranges and bounce casually between various technical levels inside that range.

These "rungs of the ladder" or "ranges within ranges" can be seen on a longer time scale as well.  Take for instance, the 2.073-1.997 range within the recent 2.14-1.94 range.  Certainly the latter has seen only minimal action while the modal (most frequently recurring) highs and lows of late have favored the 1.997-2.073 range.  There's also potential consolidation here as can be seen with the dotted lines:

But the most epic and most gorgeous recent evidence of a "triangle" in mainstream markets recently would have to be in the S&P.  Storing energy for a big breakout?  Circling the wagons for an extended weekend next week?  More and more unified in their uncertainty and perennially waiting on EU headlines?  Or all of the above?