Bond Markets Sideways and Technical. MBS Trying To Hold Gains
It's been an eerily sideways day so far. Every new chunk of trading seems to fall inside the previous chunk as far as 10yr yields are concerned (narrowing ranges, "triangles" etc...), although MBS are using the opportunity to carve out some gains vs yesterday. 101-23 has been holding up as a pivot point so far this morning although the longer term technical level is at the old "concrete ceiling/floor" at 101-26. Even so, as long as 101-23 hold as support, there's a decent chance of a few reprices for the better. Here's the alert from MBS Live, followed by a few charts:
Potential Positive Reprices as MBS Pivot Point Provides Support 11:18AM
The longer you see the 101-23 pivot point hold up as support for Fannie 3.5's (and especially if it results in a break of 101-26 for more than a few split seconds), the more possible it becomes that we'll see reprices for the better. In this case, lenders that priced at 9am or later are less likely than those who priced before (we realize that's not many), although the fast-to-act reprice crowd might be inspired enough by the pivot-based support to toss out a token improvement soon. A break back below 101-23 unwinds this optimism, should it occur.
and the translation to 101-26 in the longer run:
With the "sideways and technical" theme in mind, here's a look at 10yr yields over two days. Just bouncing between rungs of the ladder:
In addition, it's interesting to note Treasuries continue to adhere to the stock lever only when it serves their purpose. In other words, things stay well-connected at all times except when stocks go off on what Uncle Owen would call a "damn fool idealistic crusade."