MBS MID-DAY: 11/7/2011
By:
Matthew Graham
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MBS Live: MBS MID-DAY
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Pricing as of 11:00 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
9:06AM :
ECON: Home Prices Slip in September According to CoreLogic
(Reuters) - U.S. home prices fell in September for a second month in a row, pressured by weak demand and cheap distressed sales, data analysis firm CoreLogic Inc said on Monday.
CoreLogic'shome price index slipped 1.1 percent from the month before. Compared to September of last year, prices were down 4.1 percent, though this was an improvement from the 4.4 percent year-over-year decline seen in August. Excluding distressed sales, prices were down 1.1 percent from a year ago.
"Even with low interest rates, demand for houses remains muted," Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, said in a statement. "Home prices are adjusting to correct for the supply-demand imbalance and we expect declines to continue through the winter. Distressed sales remain a significant share of homes that do sell and are driving home prices overall."
Of the top 100 statistical areas measured by population, 82 showed yearly decreases, the same amount as in August. (Reporting by Leah Schnurr, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
CoreLogic'shome price index slipped 1.1 percent from the month before. Compared to September of last year, prices were down 4.1 percent, though this was an improvement from the 4.4 percent year-over-year decline seen in August. Excluding distressed sales, prices were down 1.1 percent from a year ago.
"Even with low interest rates, demand for houses remains muted," Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, said in a statement. "Home prices are adjusting to correct for the supply-demand imbalance and we expect declines to continue through the winter. Distressed sales remain a significant share of homes that do sell and are driving home prices overall."
Of the top 100 statistical areas measured by population, 82 showed yearly decreases, the same amount as in August. (Reporting by Leah Schnurr, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
8:48AM :
ALERT:
Bond Markets Near Unchanged. New Gov For Greece. Italy Takes Torch
Looking at trading levels this morning in MBS, it almost looks like nothing happened over the weekend. Things are relatively flat with the whole stack 1-2 tick in the red at the moment versus Friday's latest levels, which were also some of the highest. So Fannie 3.5's being down 2 ticks isn't so much of the story compared to the fact that they trade at 102-03 currently--higher than 80% of Friday's action.
Truth be told, it was a fairly uneventful weekend. For all the fuss made about Greece heading into the weekend, the fact that the end result was that Papandreou's ruling party scraped together "pass" of their confidence vote and then moved to call the formation of a "unity government" seems to have been expected. In fact, the buzz this morning, if anything, focuses more on Italy where there are to be more confidence votes and potential resignations/oustings of leaders.
There's no notable data on the economic calendar today and tomorrow's first major piece of data won't hit until 1pm with the 3yr note auction. Given this week's auction cycle and the fact that bond markets generally trade on the more bullish end their recent range, we're feeling a bit guarded against auction concessions combined with the possibility that the Greek gov reshuffling could be seen as increasingly positive. So we'd look for locking opportunities with 3.5's over a 101-25 level.
Truth be told, it was a fairly uneventful weekend. For all the fuss made about Greece heading into the weekend, the fact that the end result was that Papandreou's ruling party scraped together "pass" of their confidence vote and then moved to call the formation of a "unity government" seems to have been expected. In fact, the buzz this morning, if anything, focuses more on Italy where there are to be more confidence votes and potential resignations/oustings of leaders.
There's no notable data on the economic calendar today and tomorrow's first major piece of data won't hit until 1pm with the 3yr note auction. Given this week's auction cycle and the fact that bond markets generally trade on the more bullish end their recent range, we're feeling a bit guarded against auction concessions combined with the possibility that the Greek gov reshuffling could be seen as increasingly positive. So we'd look for locking opportunities with 3.5's over a 101-25 level.
8:33AM :
Rosengren: Fed Needs to Act Aggressively on Economy
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should continue to act "aggressively" to try to bring down the stubbornly high U.S. jobless rate and boost lagging economic growth, a top Fed official said on Monday.
Eric Rosengren, President of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, said weak labor conditions would help keep inflation below 2 percent over the next several years. "Given the very weak labor market conditions and the low expected inflation rate, the Federal Reserve should in my view continue to take action to aggressively try to reduce the stubbornly high U.S. unemployment rate," Rosengren said.
He said that economic growth had been lethargic despite the Fed's policy actions, and that at 9 percent in October, the jobless rate remains "unacceptably high." Job growth has been too slow to make inroads into the unemployment rate, and the United States also faces economic headwinds lingering from the financial crisis of 2008 and from worries about possible future financial shocks, he said. "In my view the Federal Reserve should continue to use the tools at its disposal to boost demand in the economy," Rosengren said. Also imperative is that fiscal policy, as controlled by federal and state governments, kick in to help the economy, he said.
"It is also important for international policy makers to take actions that provide more stable world markets," he said. Weighing into the debate about the causes of high joblessness, Rosengren said current research did not suggest a change in the structural level of unemployment but instead, "a story of weak demand throughout the economy." (Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Eric Rosengren, President of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, said weak labor conditions would help keep inflation below 2 percent over the next several years. "Given the very weak labor market conditions and the low expected inflation rate, the Federal Reserve should in my view continue to take action to aggressively try to reduce the stubbornly high U.S. unemployment rate," Rosengren said.
He said that economic growth had been lethargic despite the Fed's policy actions, and that at 9 percent in October, the jobless rate remains "unacceptably high." Job growth has been too slow to make inroads into the unemployment rate, and the United States also faces economic headwinds lingering from the financial crisis of 2008 and from worries about possible future financial shocks, he said. "In my view the Federal Reserve should continue to use the tools at its disposal to boost demand in the economy," Rosengren said. Also imperative is that fiscal policy, as controlled by federal and state governments, kick in to help the economy, he said.
"It is also important for international policy makers to take actions that provide more stable world markets," he said. Weighing into the debate about the causes of high joblessness, Rosengren said current research did not suggest a change in the structural level of unemployment but instead, "a story of weak demand throughout the economy." (Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Victor Burek : "flagstar is .1 worse than friday"
Gaius Rossini : "excluded from the state statutes?"
David Z. : "HARP is excluded from that"
Gaius Rossini : "right, exactly - obama made his speech there"
Matthew Graham : "I can't imagine that Nevada wasn't one of the targets of the program considering they're one of the states containing a majority of newly eligible harpers"
Ira Selwin : "I've always seen the verbiage "demonstrate the ability to pay" so as long as they can reflect that somehow, I guess it would be ok. Emigrant got out of the stated business here in NY because of the way the law read. The burden is on them to show that."
Gaius Rossini : "statedincome loans are apparently outlawed in NV - i was just wondering what that meant in the context of refi plus. Esp, something like manual underwriting, where income doesn't have to documented."
Matt Hodges : "wonder if the 49.5% is specifically below 50% for some specific reason"
Matthew Graham : "obviously, not a major market mover there, but something to note perhaps"
Brent Borcherding : "Buy UST!"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - JEFFERIES REDUCES GROSS HOLDINGS OF SOVEREIGN DEBT OF PORTUGAL, ITALY, IRELAND, GREECE, AND SPAIN BY 49.5% IN TODAY'S TRADING IN EUROPE "
Matt Hodges : "u/w said maybe"
John Rodgers : "You might get an underwriter to overlook it."
Matt Hodges : "divorce decree required her to do so within 2 years, 5 years later she forecloses. No, he co-signed for ex-wife so daughter would have a house instead of apartment"
John Rodgers : "were they legally divorced and he got the house in the divorce?"
Matt Hodges : "thoughts on a borrower who ex failed to refi him off or sell the property, then she goes foreclosure? FHA"