MBS MID-DAY: 11/4/2011

By: Matthew Graham
MBS Live: MBS MID-DAY
Open MBS Live Dashboard
FNMA 3.5
101-31 : +0-06
FNMA 4.0
104-05 : +0-04
FNMA 4.5
105-27 : +0-04
FNMA 5.0
107-22 : +0-03
GNMA 3.5
103-26 : +0-04
GNMA 4.0
106-23 : +0-02
GNMA 4.5
108-22 : +0-02
GNMA 5.0
110-00 : +0-03
FHLMC 3.5
101-23 : +0-07
FHLMC 4.0
103-29 : +0-04
FHLMC 4.5
105-16 : +0-03
FHLMC 5.0
107-05 : +0-05
Pricing as of 11:00 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
9:14AM  :  ALERT: MBS Tank and Recover Following NFP. Knee-Jerk Still Playing Out
Current trading levels in MBS and TSYs are encouraging. Both began the New York session weaker after a fairly uneventful overnight session. The fact that all the news snippets out of the EU weren't big market movers left the door open for this AM's NFP to retain any significance it was going to have.

In that regard, NFP has proven to be moderately significant, garnering plenty of volume and volatility after the release showed 80k new non-farm payrolls. Although this was lower than the expected 95k, there were appreciable revisions to the past 2 releases, painting an overall picture of job growth as "lackluster, but at least positive" as opposed to "at risk of turning negative." Bond markets sold off at a fairly healthy clip as markets digest the sizable revisions, but have since bounced back (stocks failed to break yesterday's highs, at least as indicated by futures trading):

Fannie 3.5's currently up 4 ticks on the day at 101-29
10yr yields 1 bp lower at 2.062
S&P futures down to 1246 after hitting 1256 after the NFP release

The only major risk from a technical standpoint here is that previous support around 2.06 has been acting as somewhat of a resistance level as we try to get back through. We could need additional motivation for that move from the domestic stock market open or a bond-friendly headline. Even so, Fannie 3.5's in the high 101-20's and above should prove to be a good thing for rate sheets this morning and ultimately, MBS are more concerned with the stability of Treasury benchmarks as opposed to whether or not they can rally through resistance levels.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Daniel Kramer  :  "REPRICE: 11:00 AM - Wells Fargo Better"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "1256 is going to be big"
Matthew Graham  :  "if they stop here at S&P 1256, we'll bounce "
Matthew Graham  :  "Stocks are the dark horse"
MMNJ  :  "revisions could hurt, but we should be rolling soon in myopinion"
Victor Burek  :  "gonna settle to a non event...back to all about greece and europe"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCT JOBLESS RATE 9.0 PCT (CONSENSUS 9.1 PCT) VS SEPT 9.1 PCT (PREV 9.1 PCT) "
Victor Burek  :  "big revisions"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US OCT PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS +104,000 (CONS +120,000), SEPT+191,000 (PREV +137,000) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCT NONFARM PAYROLLS +80,000 (CONSENSUS +95,000) VS SEPT +158,000 (PREV +103,000), AUG +104,000 (PREV +57,000) "