Fed Revises Forecasts. Ben Talks MBS. Rally Continues

Hindisght gives the clear impression of an exceedingly methodical rally for MBS today within a trend channel seen in the chart below.  You'll be able to see a bit of a "lead-off" being built in before the FOMC Announcment, perhaps in the hopes that it would specifically reference something new for MBS in addition to the reinvestment that's already in process.  Here's the alert from MBS Live that went out shortly after the forecasts were released:

Fed Forecasts Boost MBS Ahead of Bernanke. Possible Improvments 2:11PM

Rate sheets may improve if MBS maintain current levels. Fannie 3.5's have been rallying all day, mostly steadily, and at a very moderate pace, currently trading briskly around unchanged levels at 102-09 (trading from 102-08 to 102-11 in recent minutes), having gained a few ticks after the Fed's forecast revisions were released.

The Fed sees 2012 GDP at 2.5-2.9 now vs the previous estimates of 3.3-3.7. The Unemployment forecast rose from 7.8-8.2 to 8.5-8.7. The Fed continues to see inflation in the 1.5-2% range through 2014.

Lenders will likely wait for the 2:15 Bernanke Press Conference, but if prices stay at current levels for along, a few additional lenders could reprice for the better. An indirect benefactor of MBS could be the stock market, if the S&P falles, say, below 1222, MBS will probably find a few more ticks of green.

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Here's a look at the recent chart and live pricing.  The chart shows the trend channel mentioned above.  Despite MBS continuing to operate in the green as the press conference continues, MBS continue to hit resistance at the upper line:

Speaking of the Bernanke Press Conference, here are a few of the MBS-related highlights which came shortly after he started fielding questions:

"Ultimately would like to return to TSY's only, might be some time down the road"  No major reaction from MBS.  This is expected. 

"Problems in housing sector are clearly a big reason why our economy is not recovering more quickly."  This is not a new sentiment, but is communicated with increasing conviction all the time.  Bodes well for Fed being counted on as an "MBS Backstop"

"yes, would certainly look at additional MBS purchases" if the situation warranted.  Expected, but important confirmation of that which has already been said by FOMC members.

He also referenced tight houshold credit and lending standards in saying "effects of monetary policy have been blunted in the mortgage markets," but didn't suggest the Fed had an alernate approach based on that reality.