Positive Trends in MBS Running Into Technical Resistance

If you haven't already noticed it in your mind's eye, there's a nice, well-behaved trend channel in MBS over the past two days (for those that need a refresher, Investopedia's Definition is good).  The trend channel in Fannie 3.5 MBS is seen in the chart below, and while you'll nice how regular this channel has been (despite some volatility), you might also notice that we haven't been able to make any new highs since this morning, and also may need to look back to previous highs to see how challenging the road ahead might be.

Here's a look back at those previous highs.  We can see what might turn out to be a challenging pivot point right around today's highs:

There's justification for that resistance in underlying benchmarks as well.  After yesterday's rally confirmed that 10yr yields rejected a break higher than their recent 2.231 technical level, they moved down to test the next pivot point today, but so far, have had significant problems sustaining a move lower past 2.109:

Here's what the shorter term battle looks like for 10's:

bottom line... today felt bullish earlier on, but it may not be an easy jump through recent levels.