The Day Ahead: Risks to France Extend Market Uncertainty

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Weak earnings in the U.S. and a warning from Moody's that France could lose its AAA status has global equities in a frenetic sell-off Tuesday. 

Safe haven Treasuries are firmer throughout the curve: The benchmark 10-year and 30-year yields are higher at 2.13% and 3.11%, respectively, while the two-year yield is one basis point down at 0.26%.

Moody's warned France, Europe's second-largest economy, that its gilt-edged rating could be placed on review for possible downgrade in light of the debt burden it may have to shoulder to bail out weaker nations in the eurozone.

"The deterioration in debt metrics and the potential for further contingent liabilities to emerge are exerting pressure on the stable outlook of the government's Aaa debt rating," Moody's wrote in an annual report.

Economists at BMO Capital Markets noted bond markets have responded by pushing French 10-year yields up 5 basis points, "widening the spread versus German Bunds to as high as 107 bps, a euro-era record."

They added: "France losing its AAA rating would make it tough for the EFSF to maintain a AAA rating, creating yet more potential issues for the troubled region." 

U.S. equity futures continue to descend following a 2% sell-off to start the week. S&P 500 futures are down 3.9 points at 1,190 and Dow futures are 21 points lower at 11,280.

Global equities are much worse off: In Asia, shares in Hong Kong and Japan fell 4.23% and 1.55%, and Chinese stocks dropped 2.35%. In Europe's ongoing session, the FTSE 100 has shed 1.49% and the CAC-40 is 2.21% lower.

Among commodities, light crude oil is 0.12% lower at $86.28 per barrel, while gold prices are off 0.98% at $1,660.10 per ounce.

Key Events Today:

8:30 - Economists expect the Producer Price Index to move up 0.2% in September, following a flat reading in August and a 0.2% gain in July. Core prices, which exclude oil and food components, are expected to grow 0.1%, the same as in August and well below the 0.4% jump in July.

"Gasoline prices should be sharply higher - recent declines came too late to pull down the September price index," said IHS Global Insight. "Food prices are expected to ease back after three sharp monthly increases in succession. We expect core finished goods prices to be flat, held down in part by vehicles prices as manufacturers become more aggressive at discounting."

Citigroup expects a 0.3% jump in headline prices but said the general trend is towards softer wholesale prices in coming months. 

"Crude petroleum prices have fallen sharply, first on WTI and now even Brent seems to be headed lower," Citi said. "In addition, many non-energy commodity prices have fallen sharply recently."

10:00 - Builder sentiment remains exceedingly low, according to the Housing Market Index, which fell to 14 in September. Economists expect the index to inch forward to 15 this month, but until there is a sustained rise these monthly fluctuations can be ignored. An optimistic reading is anything above 50. We've got a long way to go.

"Housing activity remains depressed as builders cite credit conditions and price competition from distressed sales as an impediment to new home buying," said Nomura Global Economics.

1:15 - Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the Boston Fed Bank conference on the long term effects of the great recession.

 

  • Treasury Auctions:
  • 11:30 - 4-Week Bills
  • 11:30 - 52-Week Bills