The Day Ahead: Late Equity Rally Continues into Today
Intermediate and long-term Treasuries are backing off this morning as the stock market continues to climb following a stunning 45-minute rally to end Tuesday's session.
The 10-year and 30-year yields are three basis points higher at 1.86% and 2.84%, respectively, while the two-year yield is steady at 0.25%. MBS & Treasury Prices
S&P 500 futures are 5.1 points higher at 1,118.70 (+0.46%), and Dow futures are 45 up points at 10,728 (+0.42%).
The stock market was down roughly 1.6% an hour before Tuesday's closing bell when rumors of a coordinated effort to resolve the European debt crisis took hold of the market and sparked a 4% rally. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq finished the day up 1.44%, 2.25%, and 2.95%, respectively.
With the Financial Times headlining "EU agrees to unite in defence of its banks,"
European markets followed opted to follow the rally: the FTSE 100 is currently 2.06% higher and the CAC-40 is up 2.67%.
The Euro also 1.30% versus the U.S. dollar, to 1.3352.
Key Events Today:
8:15 - Private employment growth has been weak in recent months, and September is anticipated to be worse. The ADP Employment Report is expected to show just 70k new jobs last month, versus 91k in August and 109k in July. Forecasts range from a 10k drop to a 117k surge. Problematic as this report can be, it should guide expectations for Friday's "official" report. Actual: ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 91,000 Jobs in September.
10:00 - Like its manufacturing cousin, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is expected to slow down from its August levels, but unlike its cousin this index has room to fall before entering contraction. Economists look for a score of 53, with forecasts sitting in a range from 51.3 to 55. The index measures the services, construction, and financial industries.
"The services side of economic output has found itself in the enviable position of being the stronger, after spending the bulk of the recession lagging the manufacturing sector," said Janney Capital Markets, noting how an unexpected increase in August pointed to a certain resiliency among services-sector corporations.
"On the positive side, client demand for business services seems to be trending stably, and the recent GDP data point towards a consumer base more willing to spend on services than goods," Janney added. "On the negative side, business confidence is easing, introducing a possibility of cut not, ask questions later actions from services sector firms. We see the services industry as likely to prove durable through the ongoing economic slow patch, though possible at the expense of jobs."