The Day Ahead: Equities Bouncing Back from 2% Tumble

The Treasury market is taking a breather and equity futures are pointing higher following a last hour sell-off Wednesday that pushed indexes down roughly 2%.

The 10-year Treasury yield remains at 1.97%, the 30-year yield is at 3.04%, and the two-year yield is flat at 0.25%.  

S&P 500 futures are 9 points higher at 1,157.70, reflecting a 0.78% gain. Dow futures are 99 points up at 11,075, a 0.90% jump. The sharp slide yesterday halted a three-day rebound in markets following a broad drop-off in the middle of last week.

"Market sentiment has again turned more positive after yesterday's turn for the worse, with most main equity indices and commodities higher," said Nomura Global Economics. 

Nomura noted that officials from the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission are reportedly heading back to Greece to continue discussion of resolving the debt crisis.

Light crude oil moved 1.05% higher overnight to $82.06 per barrel, while gold prices rose 0.22% to $1,621.50.

Global markets have been mixed: a 1.15% sell-off in China was mostly offset by a 0.99% jump in Japan. Europe's ongoing session has the FTSE 100 down 0.49% but the CAC-40 is up 0.56%.

Key Events Today:

8:30 - A new round or revisions to second-quarter GDP is expected to lift the growth rate to 1.2% from 1%. The improved rate, albeit still very slow, is based on private non-residential construction and slightly better trade data (net exports).

"The faster pace of growth does not alter our perception that the economy was extremely weak in the first half," Citigroup said, predicting a higher-than-consensus 1.4%. 

"After the dismal first half, we expect a pickup in third quarter growth, which will signal that much of the earlier weakness was temporary," they added. "The latest data show that the economy actually was on an upswing in July, before the latest shock to financial conditions. However, now that financial conditions have taken the hit and risk appetites are smaller, we think any resurgence in third quarter growth will be short-circuited.

8:30 - After falling 9,000 in the previous week, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to come in at 420,000 in the week ending September 24, in line the four-week average of 421k. 

Citigroup expects to see just 410k claims, which would be a seven-week low, but say the four-week moving average "remained elevated at a level consistent with lackluster payroll activity."

Continuing claims were 3.742 million in the week ending September 10. Nomura Global Economics notes this gauge has been unable to fall below 3.7 million, "dipping below that level in only three separate occasions this year." 

"The downward trend in claims has stalled in recent weeks," Nomura said, "likely the result of increased layoff announcements."

8:30 - Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, speaks on how supervision can detect failtures to the Global Interdepence Center conference in Stockholm.

8:30 - Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, speaks on the economy to business leaders at Villanova University.

10:00 - The Pending Home Sales Index fell 1.3% in July, marking the first drop in a few months. The index was still up 14.4% above year-ago levels, but economists see room in the fall in the coming months. The August median estimate is -2%. 

• Treasury Auctions:
• 1:00 - 7-Year Notes