MBS MID-DAY: Down Day So Far
By:
Matthew Graham
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MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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Pricing as of 11:00 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
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9:49AM :
Fed Considers Buying More Long-Term Treasuries
The Federal Reserve is moving toward new steps aimed at lowering interest rates on mortgages and other kinds of long-term loans, without making another massive infusion of money into the economy.
When Fed officials hold a pivotal meeting in two weeks, they will strongly consider buying more long-term Treasury bonds, which should lead to lower interest rates for those bonds and other long-term investments. This would ultimately make it cheaper for businesses to borrow money for investments and push more dollars into the stock market, in addition to reducing rates on mortgages and other consumer loans. To pay for the bond purchases, the Fed would sell off some of the shorter-term bonds it already owns rather than printing new money.
At their last meeting, Fed officials discussed whether to revive their earlier program of massive bond purchases, using newly printed money to buy hundreds of billions of dollars in securities as a way of pumping money into the economy. This discussion prompted wide speculation that the Fed might do it again.
But now the consensus among Fed policymakers is jelling around the new strategy. While it might avoid some of the controversy that surrounded the bond purchases, including sharp criticism by some lawmakers and Republican presidential candidates, Fed officials expect the new approach to have a similar benefit for economic growth. The Fed’s policy committee will consider this and other strategies at its meeting on Sept. 20 and 21.
9:37AM :
MGIC Writes More Insurance, Delinquencies Fall
(Reuters) - MGIC Investment Corp's main mortgage insurance unit said on Wednesday it wrote more new insurance in August and the number of bad loans on its books fell from the previous month. The Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp wrote $1.3 billion in new insurance, among its highest levels this year, in a weak market for new mortgages. U.S. mortgage demand fell for a third straight week last week despite interest rates falling to near record lows. The largest mortgage insurer in the United States had 183,338 mortgages delinquent at the end of August, down from 185,093 at the end of July. Cures -- the number of mortgages on which borrowers were able to catch up on overdue payments -- also rose to 11,719. MGIC, like other U.S. mortgage insurers such as Radian Group Inc , PMI Group and Genworth Financial , underwrote millions of mortgages during the housing boom only to be saddled with billions of dollars in losses when loans soured. Shares of the Milwaukee, Wisconsin-based company closed at $2.29 on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. The stock has lost more than 80 percent of its value since the beginning of the year. (Reporting by Jochelle Mendonca in Bangalore; Editing by Joyjeet Das)
9:25AM :
ALERT:
Bond Markets Slightly Weaker This Morning. MBS Outperform
From last night's MBS Commentary: "Any time TSY yields are rising or "risk-tolerance" is generally increasing, you're more likely to see MBS do this--hold their ground to against losses to a greater extent than Treasuries." That's generally what's occurring this morning as several overnight cues have weakened longer-dated Treasuries. 10yr notes are down 12 ticks in price while Fannie 3.5's are down 6 ticks in price (101-16). 10's are up just over 4 bps at 2.025. Fannie 4.0's are down in price 5 ticks to 104-09. There's no major economic data this morning and all we really have are a couple Fed speakers and the Beige Book at 2pm. MBS have been trending lower with Treasuries since the open so rate sheets could be slightly delayed as a result in some cases.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
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Matthew Graham : "Dahill, we're killing TSYs today"
Victor Burek : "risk on...german courts said bailout okay...can kicked down the road..stocks rally"
Adam Dahill : "WTF is up with MBS? Very frustrated that we didn't perform like Treas yesterday and today looks like anoother weak day. "
Matthew Graham : "this is just an unwinding of the insane flattener that's been on recently"
Matthew Graham : "note the green in 5.5's"
Matthew Graham : "note the unchanged 2yr and 3yr"
Matthew Graham : "curve too flat"
Matthew Graham : "things have gotten overdone in anticipation of Operation twist"
Victor Burek : "flagstar .7 worse 4.25 and lower...that is after the reprce worse yesterday"
Matthew Graham : "yesterday was nothing"
Matthew Graham : "today is nothing"
Jeff Anderson : "The post about Fed considering buying more long term treasuries. Or is today all based on the goings on in Europe?"
Jeff Anderson : "So are we selling the rumor and we'll buy the news later?"
Ken Crute : "conv rates out, we did not reprice yesterday, today .25-.375 worse "
Matthew Graham : "For anyone that needs a refresher, "Class A" = Fannie/Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS and "48 Hour Day" refers to the notification day of the 2-day settlement process. More from SIFMA: "two business days before the contractual settlement date of the trade, the seller will communicate to the buyer the exact details of the MBS pools that will be delivered (the 48-hour rule). Due to the required two days notice, the notification date is often called the 48-hour day.""
Matthew Graham : "yeah, looking forward to that. almost as much as Class A 48 hour day"
Gaius Rossini : "also, speech tomorrow may move mbs depending on what obama says - also prepay report is tonight"