MBS RECAP: 9/1/2011

Perhaps it was the fact that the internals of the ISM report were weaker than the headline and the street took some time to realize it. Perhaps it was the fact that the ISM report being stronger than expected caused the street to trim expectations of QE3. Or perhaps this is merely a technical correction from last night's and this morning's lows (recent lows in S&P's fell along that same line). But whatever the case, stocks are down to 1218 in the S&P and have been in the red for about half an hour (currently hovering around unchanged. Bonds like it. 10's are down 4.7 bps on the day now at 2.1864 and Fannie MBS are improved. 4's are up 7 ticks at 103-30 and 3.5's are up 10 ticks at 100-31+. This morning's action reiterates a common theme though, and that is that the bond market is paying attention to stocks. If Stocks manage to stage an afternoon rally, we could lose recent gains. But until that happens, risks of reprices for the worse are gone and it would only be a matter of time (or further gains) before reprices for the better become the more likely event.