MBS RECAP: Flight to Safety

By: Matthew Graham
MBSonMND: MBS RECAP
Open MBSonMND Dashboard
FNMA 3.5
101-10 : +0-17
FNMA 4.0
104-11 : +0-12
FNMA 4.5
106-10 : +0-05
FNMA 5.0
108-09 : +0-01
GNMA 3.5
102-12 : +0-18
GNMA 4.0
106-03 : +0-10
GNMA 4.5
108-15 : +0-03
GNMA 5.0
110-13 : -0-02
FHLMC 3.5
101-03 : +0-17
FHLMC 4.0
104-06 : +0-13
FHLMC 4.5
106-04 : +0-05
FHLMC 5.0
108-02 : +0-02
Pricing as of 4:00 PM EST
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
3:48PM  :  Economic Calendar More Sparse as Rally Shoots for Confirmation
The converging trends in bond markets were broken today in our favor. Although the trend in question was slightly directional, it's just as well to call it 2.25 heading into tomorrow. That's the horizontal level that will need to hold up in order to confirm a shift from "sideways" to "improving." The stock market and technical day trading will provide plenty of guidance to pick up slack from a relatively light economic data calendar. The only item of note is the Producer Price Index at 830am. This used to be much more of a market mover than it has been recently, but neither would we disregard it. As usual, the bigger the deviation from the consensus, the more the movement potential. Richard Fisher is the lone Fed-Speaker of the day at 120pm, but we'd classify Fed-Speak as perhaps slightly more important than normal both because it follows a recent FOMC-catalyzed market shake up and because it precedes next week's Jackson Hole Fed-stravaganza. The following link has further details on tomorrow's events as well as the rest of the week.
2:50PM  :  Positive Reprice Potential is Ongoing as MBS Hit New Highs
Bond markets moderated following their initial rally today but have again marched back toward their best levels of the day after stocks failed to break back into positive territory. This time around, MBS are tightening up to Treasuries and are truely at their best levels of the day while 10yr notes are merely "close." For Fannie 4.0's, that's just over 3/8ths of a point on the day at 104-12 and 10yr notes are 9.4 bps better on the day at 2.216. The twofold impact of MBS being at their highs and also having held onto gains without correcting too much lower (only hit 104-07) is positive for the reprice outlook. Several lenders have already repriced for the better, and more may follow if these levels are maintained.
1:29PM  :  Miscellaneous Highlights and Quotes From Merkel/Sarkozy
(Reuters) - The leaders of France and Germany met for high-pressure talks on Tuesday to discuss what further measures they can take to shore up investor confidence in the euro zone following a dramatic market sell-off last week. Following (in the link) are key quotes from a joint news conference held by President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
1:16PM  :  Bond Markets Begin Prodding Technical Breakout (In a Good Way)
10yr yields are currently LOWER, and testing a breakout of the triangle we've been eyeing for the past few days. This would be good technical indication, and increasingly so the longer it continues to be true. Now this seems like a pretty timid way to refer to current gains, which are pretty nice versus earlier trading (10's down to 2.22, Fannie 4.0's up to 104-09), but in the context of august, it is a pretty timid breakout. Even if the breakout of the triangle can be confirmed, all that does is give the nod to the slight trend of improvement from the lows of 8/9/11. That puts support around 2.30 today and doesn't guarantee a sustained move lower without first testing horizontal resistance. 2.22+ is clearly the first wall to get through, and indeed we're there already. Next major horizontal tech is near 2.17 give or take a bp. After that, 2.09/2.10 is going to be the biggest challenge. But we'll cross the bridge of discussing forward looking techs when we get closer. For now, all we know is that the 2.22 level is looking like it is providing resistance right now as 10's continue to dance around it. MBS turned the corner at yesterday's highs in response, but remain high enough to justify reprices for the better.
11:24AM  :  ALERT: Stocks Keep Rising, Bonds Hold Support, Maybe Improving...
Although the gains are on the mild side, stocks have generally been moving up today. e.g. S&P lows near 1187 and highs recently at 1198. Please note that 1187/188 area in S&P's. It's super scary. Why scary? Because it's clearly a horizontal line in the sand for stocks. Although it goes back much further into the past, it most recently acted as FIRM resistance to stock gains on the 11th and 12th. Then yesterday, stocks opened higher and fell towards 1188, this time relying on it as a supportive floor. Now that trend continues today as the lows are effectively a reinforcement of the 1188 technical. Why all the stock talk on the MBS site? Because bonds are definitely paying attention to stocks these days, and because the recent epic moves in both markets certainly rely on each other as making statements about big, long-term shifts. But so far, MBS and TSYs are calling the bluff of the 1188 support, themselves holding fairly steady and with similar gains as earlier this morning. 10's are 4 bps better on the day at 2.27 and Fannie 4.0's are up 5 ticks on the day at 104-04. We could see reprices for the better if MBS continue to hold these levels as steadily as they have been or if they improve from here. Those potentialities may depend on the impending news conference after "Merkozy" (meeting between Sarkozy and Merkel) set for Noon Eastern.
11:21AM  :  New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Jason Zimmer  :  "correct CS, i have a bunch of deals that won't work because of that"
Aaron Buyside Meyer  :  "agreed"
Christopher Stevens  :  "my LO's are noticing that quite a few FHA refi's will not happen due to increased monthly MI. Even a reduction of rate of more than 1% not saving money."
Steve Chizmadia  :  "Pinnacle better"
Victor Burek  :  "nexbank better"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "Plaza Better"
Jeff Anderson  :  "We got a huge improvement at 4.125%. Now solidly at 4.125% again. A 40 bps improvement. Wow."
Matthew Graham  :  "anyway... lenders offering improved rebate at 4.125 and lower leads to more 3.5 production."
Matthew Graham  :  "soooo.... with all the talk about which note rates get turned into which MBS coupons, and remembering of course that 4.125 = 3.5 MBS coupon, does that flagstar reprice make sense? and with what now is an almost eerie backdrop provided by CK's comment and the follow up?"
Matthew Graham  :  "WOW... Seriously Flagstar? Get out of CK's head!"
Victor Burek  :  "wow...nice reprice from flagstar... 4.125 and lower improved .6, higher rates about .4"
Matthew Graham  :  "CK, i don't want to burst any bubbles at all, but the darn things still just aren't trading on the TBA market, and the 18 tick gain vs 4.0's 13 tick gain is fairly nominal considering the shape of the yield curve today. I will give you this though... Simply seeing the price within 3 points of 4.0s is a good thing and potential harbinger of an uptick in production."
Chris Kopec  :  "How about that 3.50....you go girlfriend!!!"
Matthew Graham  :  "GREAT late day developments here in terms of MBS prices vs tsy yields. Earlier talk about spreads, etc... now we can infer some MBS tightening since MBS are at their highs of the day while TSY's are back at 2.21. MBS catching up a bit. Make sense?"
Ryan Thomassie  :  "2% up front"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Yes, Tom. MMI is on the way for USDA. Don't have the exact MI rate off the top of my head. Heard .3, but not positive."
Tom Bartlett  :  "Has anyone heard rumors of USDA requiring MMI come Oct.? ando heard about a new loan product with 1% downpayment but cannot confirm. Anyone have info?"
Timothy Baron  :  "BofA reprice"
Jason York  :  "on the fee sheet, at thebottom, where it says CC adjustments for FHA"
Jason Zimmer  :  "page 4 "CC adjustments for FHA""
Christopher Max  :  "any calyx users here? Trying to figure out where to put the MIP refund for FHA Streamline. Have not done one recently and it was much easier with Encompass."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - TOM BENTZ, DIRECTOR, BNP PARIBAS COMMODITY FUTURES, INC, NEW YORK, NY: "There was no major news coming out of this, so it looks like a bit of buy rumor, sell fact. The market was hoping for some kind of euro bond deal, but that doesn't look likely, so maybe that pulled the market lower.""
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - MERKEL ON EURO BONDS "The question is what is right now for overcoming the current phase of the crisis. Over and over again, I feel that people are looking for the one event, the one method which will solve everything and lift us out of the crisis, and in this context people often say that the last resort is euro bonds. "I neither think that Europe is at the point of needing its last resort, nor do I think that we can solve these problems with what I have called a bang. And th"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - RPT-SARKOZY SAYS HE AND MERKEL DECIDED TO PROPOSE COMMON GOVERNANCE FOR EURO ZONE "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL SAYS EUROPEAN COMMISSION SHOULD GET STRONGER POWERS TO DEAL WITH FISCAL RULE BREAKERS "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL SAYS EURO STATES MUST AGREE TO IMPLEMENT CHANGES TO BUDGET POLICIES IF BRUSSELS SAYS CHANGES NEEDED "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL SAYS GERMANY AND FRANCE FEEL OBLIGATION TO ENSURE STRONG EURO "
Adam Quinones  :  "about 1bn on screens, mostly 4.0s but some 3.5s thrown in there."
Ray J  :  "AQ: hows the volume on the 3.5 today?"
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS SARKOZY SAYS PROPOSALS WOULD ASK 17 EURO ZONE COUNTRIES TO PUT DEFICIT LIMIT RULE IN CONSTITUTIONS BY SUMMER 2012 "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS SARKOZY SAYS PROPOSAL WOULD ELECT A EURO ZONE PRESIDENT FOR TWO AND A HALF YEARS "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - - SARKOZY SAYS HE AND MERKEL DECIDED TO PROPOSE COMMON GOVERNANCE FOR EURO ZONE "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS- - SARKOZY SAYS PROPOSALS FROM FRANCE, GERMANY ON EURO ZONE WILL BE COMPLETE "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS- FRANCE'S SARKOZY SAYS HE, GERMANY'S MERKEL ARE ABSOLUTELY DETERMINED TO DEFEND THE EURO "
Adam Quinones  :  "anyway...not sure what MG referenced this AM already but we did get a bit more loan supply from originators yesterday, between 1.5 and 2bn. Almost all C30s were 4.0 coupons which sorta cements loan pricing in it's current form (as a benchmark)"