MBS MID-DAY: Reprice Targets

"Rate sheet influential" MBS prices are revisiting session lows as stocks continue to drift higher in a slow trading environment. Fannie Mae 30yr 4.0 MBS coupons are -6/32nds at 100-28 and 4.5s are down 4/32nds at 104-06. While production MBS coupons are indeed at their worst prices of the session, they really haven't ventured too far from these levels so far today. The trading range has been tight, which means most lenders are well-aware of weakness and have already accounted for it in loan pricing. From that perspective we see reprices for the worse as being more of a threat if Fannie 4.0s break 100-24 support and move rapidly down toward a test of 100-20. Making that threat a possibility is the potential for continued pre-3yr note auction weakness. If this scenario plays out we will alert. What's an auction concession? http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/214560.aspx

Richard Fisher is a Fed policy voter. His opinion matters more than a non-FOMC voter. Right now he doesn't support further Quantitative Easing. He is a "hawk". Instead he feels there is plenty of liquidity in the financial system and believes it is time to focus on national budget issues. (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday there was ample liquidity in the U.S. financial system and no need for the U.S. central bank to continue its extremely easy monetary policy. Interviewed on CNBC television, Fisher said U.S. businesses' balance sheets were in good shape and companies were awaiting clearer signs about how the economy will develop before they kick up the pace of hiring. "This is going to be a very slow process, and right now we need to get the fiscal side" lined up, Fisher said. Fisher, a voting member of the Fed's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, already is on record saying the central bank should not continue a bond-buying program. Its $600 billion second round of quantitative easing, known as QE2, ends this month. "What would more liquidity do? It's not being used. It's sitting on the sidelines. The gas tanks are full," he said. Fisher said he expects economic growth to accelerate in the second half of this year to an annual rate of about 3 percent to 4 percent and said businesses were poised to hire. "We are lean and mean, our balance sheets are in great shape in America," he said. "There is a lot of liquidity out there. I am eager to see the trigger -- I don't know what it is -- for that money to be spent putting Americans back to work." (Reporting by Glenn Somerville, editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

These comments from non-FOMC monetary policy voter Eric Rosengren call attention to what is becoming a more vocal debate in the marketplace. Will we see another round of Quantitative Easing from the Federal Reserve? Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks this afternoon and although the topic of his speech is TBA, the market is expecting him to share a dovish tone, which is supportive of lower interest rates. However we wouldn't expect him to share too much forward looking guidance as the Fed has set a high-bar on implementing another Quantitative Easing program. Ben should acknowledge a slower than anticipated economic recovery but he will probably reiterate that the Fed "will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery". (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth has been weaker than economists had expected, but it is still too soon for the Federal Reserve to consider additional bond purchases, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Monday. Rosengren also did not rule out a third round of quantitative easing of monetary policy, or QE3. "I think it's too soon to make that determination," Rosengren told CNBC Television. "It's too soon to determine what the next steps for monetary policy are." Rosengren, considered one of the more dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee, did suggest the expansion's softness might delay the day when the Fed eventually begins to withdraw stimulus. "The slowdown does change when you think the timing would be for when an exit strategy would be appropriate. Rosengren is not a voter on the FOMC this year. (Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, Editing by Gary Crosse)

Rate sheets are set weaken once again as benchmark Treasuries get off to another slow start and MBS prices follow the leader into lower price territory. A bounce in stock futures is leading money out of bonds this morning. The 10-year Treasury note is 10/32 lower in price and 3.5bps higher in yield at 3.031%% and the Fannie Mae 30-year 4.0 MBS coupon is -7/32 at 100-27. This behavior is similar to what we witnessed yesterday morning before a modest reversal played out in the afternoon hours as declining stock indexes sparked a reallocation of funds back into risk-free assets. Stock futures are off those afternoon lows after more than five weeks of declines. S&P 500 futures are 6 points higher at 1,291 and Dow futures are 68 points up at 12,126. The federal fundraising process gets underway with $32-billion 3-year notes, results will be announced shortly after 1pm eastern. Although we'd expect Wednesday's $21-billion 10-year note issue to carry more influence over mortgage rates, we can't overlook any auction. If MBS and ultimately, rate sheets, hope to revisit record setting levels, strong demand for all U.S. debt must be exhibited by bond investors. The day is unlikely to end with little fanfare as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will take center-stage at the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta at 3:45pm eastern. Because his topic of discussion is "to be announced", we'll be paying close attention for any updates Bernanke shares on monetary policy (QEIII) and the FOMC's economic outlook. While this event takes place in after hours trading, the Fed Chairman always carries enough clout to move the markets.