MBS MID-DAY: Breaking New Ground

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MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
96-19 : +0-09
FNMA 4.0
100-16 : +0-09
FNMA 4.5
103-13 : +0-02
FNMA 5.0
106-04 : +0-05
GNMA 3.5
98-04 : +0-09
GNMA 4.0
102-14 : +0-08
GNMA 4.5
105-12 : +0-02
GNMA 5.0
107-30 : +0-05
FHLMC 3.5
96-13 : +0-10
FHLMC 4.0
100-13 : +0-10
FHLMC 4.5
103-13 : +0-05
FHLMC 5.0
105-31 : +0-04
Pricing as of 11:01 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
10:42AM  :  Rate Sheets Aggressive on MBS Gains
Until this morning, 103-12 had offered rather firm overhead resistance for FNCL 4.5 MBS. Similarly, 3.13 had been a yield level in 10's that had only been tested on a few brief occasions as yields saw most of their bounces in the 3.14/3.15 area. The suggestion is that we're we're either breaking out of the short term range or that the range is quite simply governed by sloped trendlines rather than horizontal price and yield levels. The latter is probably the way it is, but the only reason we even bring that up is to discount the importance of trading below the yield range in 10's. It LOOKS important, but it doesn't feel that way. For more evidence refuting any major significance here, just take a look at stocks and note the following: a) stocks and bonds have been fairly well connected, and b) throughout May, stocks are noticeably in a diagonally sloped downtrend, right? Bonds are entitled.... The benefit to MBS is a gradual shift down-in-coupon, and as a consequence, rate sheets more and more aggressive.
9:29AM  :  ECON: IP/CapU Report Shows Weak Manufacturing
While April's headline industrial output was unchanged vs March's 0.7 pct increase, it was a slight beat of the 0.4 pct consensus. Capacity utilization was effectively unchanged as well at 76.9 vs 77.0 in March. But the component of the data that measures manufacturing output dropped for the first time since June 2010 (otherwise known as "almost a year"), falling 0.4 pct versus a 0.6 pct increase in March. Citing parts shortages resulting from the Japan Earthquakes, the report showed the motor vehicle assembly rate falling from 8.98 mln in March to 7.86 mln in April. This is yet another economic straw on an already ailing camel's back. The 10yr note, previously able to hold itself just at 3.13 at it's worst moments of the past few weeks is starting to look like it's buckling at the knees. Thing is... (and we'll probably repeat this again today), it doesn't really matter if new territory is forged today unless that forging occurs in high high high volume. Otherwise, we're waiting on tomorrow's FOMC minutes, among other things.
8:40AM  :  ECON: Housing Starts Down 10.6 pct
After rising for two consecutive months in Feb and Mar, Housing Starts are down 10.6 pct for April to a unit rate of 523k. Economists had forecast that figure at 568k after March and Feb came in at 585k and 549k respectively. Permits were down as well, falling 4.0 pct to a unit rate of 551k versus a 585k consensus.
8:05AM  :  New MBS Commentary Post

Updated at 12:04pm....

Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
John Paul Mulchay  :  "I think the distressed property/appraisal issue is quite regional. Distressed counts in Vegas I assure you"
Matthew Graham  :  "FYI, in terms of newly originated MBS last week, there were about 6 times more 4.5's than 4.0's. "
Chris Kopec  :  "I can email you an appraisal that was $150,000 higher, in my own home town, because one appraiser used foreclosures, and another borrower used non-distressed sales."
Andrew Horowitz  :  "case in point friend of mine is a private high rate lender, he was about to foreclose on 13 properties, told me about it, I approached a friend of mine who approached the owners of the houses offered them 15k above what they owed and 10 of the 13 accepted the low ball price"
Justin Bayle  :  "There is nothing new about Stockton being the "herbal" capital"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "speaking of foreclosures : Huffington Post: Citing anonymous sources, the website reports that confidential audits by HUD's inspector general accuse the top five mortgage servicers of "defrauding taxpayers" in their handling of foreclosures on FHA loans. "The audits accuse the five major lenders of violating the False Claims Act, a Civil War-era law crafted as a weapon against firms that swindle the government," the story says, and the IG's office "referred its findings to the Department of Jus"
Matthew Graham  :  "stockton, CA... new herb capital of the world"
Matthew Graham  :  "turn em into community herb gardens?"
Matthew Graham  :  "burn 'em down?"
Matthew Graham  :  "any bright idea there ck?"
Chris Kopec  :  "No disagreement on that point, MG. My point is, time for a quarantine."
Matthew Graham  :  "all that "stuff" is kinda open to whatever interpretation you wanna work for. but one thing that's not open to interpretation is that we're still fairly screwed as far as the overall health of the housing market."
Chris Kopec  :  "Yeah VB...I'm with you."
Victor Burek  :  "i'm thinking a good day to lock"
Ken Crute  :  ".25-.375% in price better than yesterday per am rate sheet "
Matthew Graham  :  "volume is getting up there this AM Brent. but not high enough to be a range breakout."
Brent Borcherding  :  "& if I read correctly, unless this is in HIGH volume, we're just waiting on tomorrow."
Matthew Graham  :  "truth be told, i don't much care for horizontal price/yield levels... "
Matthew Graham  :  "it's a bit diagonal, and still within that"
Brent Borcherding  :  "MG, what are you calling the bottom of the range?"
Matthew Graham  :  "industrial production and cap u coming out in 3 minutes"
Adam Quinones  :  "street will eat that supply alive. check out GN/FN swaps. dealers yearn for that paper."
Chris Maas  :  "yes, it was kind of slow last month. been having to wait to put a trade together"
Adam Quinones  :  "*RID"
Adam Quinones  :  "odd youre takin down front month indications. you must have a bunch of old production youre trying to get ride of?"
Kent Taylor  :  "Thanks MND for a new client that found me here - closing this month"