MBS MID-DAY: Backin-Up Before Bernanke

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MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
Open MBSonMND Dashboard
FNMA 3.5
94-20 : -0-10
FNMA 4.0
98-29 : -0-08
FNMA 4.5
102-11 : -0-06
FNMA 5.0
105-04 : -0-04
GNMA 3.5
95-25 : -0-12
GNMA 4.0
100-18 : -0-08
GNMA 4.5
103-29 : -0-06
GNMA 5.0
106-22 : -0-05
FHLMC 3.5
94-14 : -0-10
FHLMC 4.0
98-24 : -0-08
FHLMC 4.5
102-07 : -0-06
FHLMC 5.0
105-01 : -0-04
Pricing as of 11:01 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
10:04AM  :  Homeownership Rate Falls in 1st Quarter 2011
(Census Bureau)- National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2011 were 9.7 percent for rental housing and 2.6 percent for homeowner housing, the Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau announced today. The rental vacancy rate of 9.7 percent was 0.9 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in the first quarter 2010 (+/-0.5 percentage points) and 0.3 percentage points higher than last quarter (+/-0.4)*. The homeowner vacancy rate of 2.6 percent was approximately the same as the first quarter 2010 rate (+/-0.2) and 0.1 percentage point lower (+/-0.2)* than the rate last quarter (2.7 percent). The homeownership rate of 66.4 percent was 0.7 percentage points (+/-0.4%) lower than the first quarter 2010 rate (67.1 percent) and 0.1 percentage point (+/-0.4%)* lower than the rate last quarter (66.5 percent). FULL RELEASE: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr111/files/q111press.pdf
9:55AM  :  TSYs and MBS Slightly Weaker After Stocks Open
After rallying to the highest close since mid 2008, S&P's are holding in the green so far this morning at 1348.93. Until the 930am stock market open, 10yr notes had held on to 3.353 fairly well but have recently risen to 3.357. MBS are also at their weakest levels of the day with FNCL 4.5's down 7 ticks to 102-10. Volume is low ahead of the 1130am auction of 5yr Treasury notes and the 1230pm Fed Announcement.
9:02AM  :  Bernanke's Code: A Guide to Fed Chairman's First Q&A
(WSJ) - When Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke makes his debut press conference Wednesday, his every word will be parsed for signs of where he hopes to take U.S. monetary policy. Specifically, many people want to know when the central bank will begin raising interest rates, and when it will begin off-loading some assets, including Treasurys and its multitrillion-dollar cache of mortgages. As Mr. Bernanke touches on topics familiar to Fed-watchers, he will use seemingly ordinary words or phrases that are freighted with important economic messages in the world of the Fed. A few examples: READ EM AT THE WSJ: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704729304576287402925861890.html
8:49AM  :  Glass Rally Breaks as Short-Covering Runs Its Course
If you're betting on a particular security moving in one direction and it moves far enough in the other direction, you're forced to "cover." In so doing, you move the price even more, forcing others with similar bets to do the same--snowball effect. This is what occurred yesterday in benchmark Treasuries, which is why we weren't too excited about the gains coming in to today, and in part, also explains why MBS didn't participate as much in the rally. And so it is that we're greeted this morning by 10yr yields in the thick of yesterday morning's range, currently at 3.353. FNCL 4.5 MBS are down 6 ticks at 102-11. The Durable Goods data that was just released had little impact on bond markets and as expected, we're waiting for FOMC at 1230pm. There's also the 5yr auction at 1130am, but the Fed Announcement and subsequent press-conference can easily trump "mere" auction results. Just taking things one tick at a time until then...
8:32AM  :  DATA FLASH: Durable Goods Rise 2.5%
* US MARCH DURABLES ORDERS +2.5 PCT (CONS. +2.0 PCT) VS FEB +0.7 PCT (PREV -0.6 PCT) * U.S. MARCH DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION +1.3 PCT (CONS +1.8 PCT) VS FEB +0.6 PCT (PREV -0.3 PCT) * U.S. MARCH DURABLES EX-DEFENSE +2.3 PCT (CONS +1.7 PCT) VS FEB +2.0 PCT (PREV +0.7 PCT)
7:56AM  :  New MBS Commentary Post

Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Daniel Kramer  :  "michael, if the loan is for 300k or more, and the guy is working cheap, can be done with no buy down at 5/3"
Matt Hodges  :  "do the math on the cost from 4.75% to 4.625% - repayment time frame over 10 years. I don't know why it would be attractive at all"
Michael Owens  :  "I know either paying or par basically. thanks"
Chris Kopec  :  "MO....big ledge seperating 4.625 and 4.750."
Adam Quinones  :  "it warms my heart to see LOs talk about the production coupon."
Michael Owens  :  "with 2 pts"
Rob Clark  :  "Lending tree is pushing 4.5 out here in CA"
Michael Owens  :  "so the other's guy quote is like I said to my client, "only available at fantasy mortgage.""
Matt Hodges  :  "huge stretch, given no production in the 4.0 coupon"
Michael Owens  :  "me either"
Brent Borcherding  :  "Doubtful."
Michael Owens  :  "anyone see a deal at 4.625% 30 year fixed, 45% LTV 780 score not requiring a buy down? "
Andrew Horowitz  :  "Off topic, anybody here have a warehouse line through Bank Atlantic?"
Matt Hodges  :  "http://www.realcentralva.com/2011/04/27/it-may-not-be-widespread-but-even-once-is-wrong/ Interesting read on loan fraud in Charlottesville"
Adam Quinones  :  "makes you think we're aiding other countries who will eventually scorn us for high debt levels. "
Adam Quinones  :  "we're letting the emerging economies use our already developed supply chain resources to build their own supply chains. good or bad or necessity?"
Rob Clark  :  "CNBC told Ron Paul that the low dollar was a good thing as we pay foreign investors less."
Adam Quinones  :  "yay exports and manufacturing!"
Matthew Graham  :  "dollar index at 3 yr low this AM"
Caroline Roy  :  "anyone catch the NPR bit about putting the Case/Schiller Home index to Opera? It is amazing and pretty funny! http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/04/26/135737940/the-case-shiller-index-sung-as-opera"
Adam Quinones  :  "lock "everything" implies youre floating everything. we don't ever recommend running naked."
Adam Quinones  :  "use those two posts to make a decision tom."
Adam Quinones  :  "Forced Buying Leaves Rates Lower. MBS Lag. Bond Poll Attached: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/208964.aspx"
Adam Quinones  :  "Mortgage Rates: Cheapest Borrowing Costs in a Month: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/208960.aspx"
tom duff  :  "should I lock everything up or wait it out, that's the question?"
MMNJ  :  "Suntrust is 70LTv and 720 FICO.....sorry...:("
MMNJ  :  "Steve, I remember seeing something about Suntrus allowing up to 75% on an IO if FICO is 680 or higher"
Adam Quinones  :  "http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/garrett_watts/138658.aspx"
Adam Quinones  :  "http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/garrett_watts/134320.aspx"
Adam Quinones  :  "http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/garrett_watts/142061.aspx"