The Day Ahead: Busy Session. Rewriting History Books
The Federal Reserve will make history today when the Chairman of the Board stands before the media to usher in a new era of transparency in monetary policy. And that's the last event to take place on a busy calendar in the day ahead.
Before that we get Durable Goods Orders at 830 and Homeownership and Vacancy Rates at 10am. Then to make room for Fed speak in the afternoon hours, Treasury has bumped the 5-yr note auction from its normally scheduled 1pm timeslot to 11:30am. Once the dust settles on debt issuance...the Federal Reserve jumps into the spotlight. The FOMC Statement which is normally released at 2:15pm will be published at 12:30. And after that comes what we've all been waiting for...history. At 2:15pm, Ben Bernanke for the first time ever will conduct a press briefing on the FOMC's economic projections to provide additional perspective on the Fed's thought process. This is a big deal to us because it gives the Fed Chairman a chance to clarify his outlook and steer investors in the direction he wants. It puts Ben Bernanke on center stage and gives him full control (overshadowing the hawks). Who is the most powerful man in the world again? Seems like Bernanke right now....
Rates are higher and the yield curve bear flattening......
10s are -12/32 at 102-08 yielding 3.353% (+4.3bps)
2s/10s are 3bps flatter at 267bps wide.
FNCL 4.5s are -7/32 at 102-10.
S&Ps are +0.35% at 1345.75.
Light Crude is +0.09% at 112.31
Gold is +0.35% at 1508.70
KEY EVENTS IN THE DAY AHEAD
8:30 ― Economists look for Durable Goods Orders to jump 1.9% in March following a 0.6% cutback in February. Forecasts are diverse, ranging from 0.5% to 3%. Orders are expected to rebound following sharp reductions in machinery orders a month before.
“The advance report from durable goods manufacturers should confirm the strong new orders index readings from the ISM manufacturing index and regional Fed surveys,” said economists at Nomura, who expect a large increase in aircraft orders, paired with gains in electrical equipment and computers.
“The boost in orders would lead to more shipments and stronger GDP growth in the second quarter of 2011, which we currently expect to rise by a 3.3%,” they added.
10:00 - New Residential Vacancies and Homeownership data for the first quarter 2011 will be released. In the fourth quarter of 2010, the homeownership rate of 66.5 percent was 0.7 percentage points (+/-0.4%) lower than the fourth quarter 2009 rate (67.2 percent) and 0.4 percentage points (+/-0.4%) lower than the rate in the third quarter (66.9 percent). Homeowner Vacancy and Rental Vacancy statistics are from the Housing Vacancy Survey, which is a supplement to the Current Population Survey. The homeowner vacancy rate is the proportion of the homeowner inventory which is vacant for sale. The rental vacancy rate is the proportion of the rental inventory which is vacant for rent. A housing unit is vacant if no one is living in it at the time of the interview, unless its occupants are only temporarily absent. In addition, a vacant unit may be one which is entirely occupied by persons who have a usual residence elsewhere.
11:30 ― Treasury auctions $35,000,000 5-year notes. Competitive bids are cut-off at 11:30 instead of 1:00 to give investors a chance to prepare for the early release of the FOMC statement and the first ever post-meeting press conference with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
12:30 ― The FOMC Statement is released. The announcement is likely to show an unchanged monetary policy, but many questions remain: Is QE2 ending this summer as scheduled? Is the Fed increasingly concerned with inflation risks? How does the Fed view the ongoing recovery? Is commodity-price driven inflation still "transitory"?.
Economists at Nomura expect the conference with Bernanke to provide some insight on the FOMC's economic outlook, “which has been lacking in the traditional press releases.”
2:15 - Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will hold the first ever press briefing on the Federal Open Market Committee's current economic projections to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions. The introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication. The Federal Reserve will continue to review its communications practices in the interest of ensuring accountability and increasing public understanding.