MBS Recap: Slowest Day of Year

This is just about as quiet as it gets... 10 yr TSYs have actually been in LESS than a 1 basis point range since 11am (3.361 to 3.37). Volume is non-existent. MBS are similarly narrow in range and lacking in volume beginning at the same time with FNCL 4.5's going no higher than 102-11, no lower than 102-09, and currently at 102-10. Without putting the cart too far ahead of the horse, we'd lean toward the belief that today was pretty much over as soon as it began, turning our attention instead to the unofficial inception of the week tomorrow.

The S&P made a very minor new high since we last checked, but Treasuries continue to march to the beat of their own drummer, staying low in yield on the day at 3.365. FNCL 4.5's are 7 ticks up on the day at 102-09, fairly close to their 102-10 high. Reprices for the better continue to be a possibility, and low volume range trade continues to be a probability.

Current MBS gains are sufficient to see lenders repricing for the better. But this is due to a slow and rather meaningless slog upward as opposed to a triumphant, data-driven, high volume rally. The stock lever is no longer connected as Treasuries show their willingness to trade recent ranges ahead of FOMC. Recent yield lows in 10yr notes center on 3.36 and that's where we've seen a majority of resistance today, especially when considering volume, as the only noticeable upswing occurred at those levels. 10's are currently at 3.63 and seem like they want us to believe they're not especially interested in going lower. FNCL 4.5's, at 102-10 are as high as they've been since 3/21 and share a similar stance, in that the obvious assumption is to encounter resistance here. If 10's are able to break lower, MBS stand a good chance to break higher, but until/unless that happens, we're simply in a low-volume range-trade in a market that knows it has more important things to worry about than today's levels as the week progresses. In other words, don't read anything into today's market movements as far as making some sort of statement about the directional inclinations of bond markets.

(Mortgage Bankers Association) - Commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes increased 44 percent in 2010 over the previous year, with mortgage bankers reporting $118.8 billion of closed commercial and multifamily loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's 2010 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance: Annual Origination Volume Summation. "Coming off of the 2009 lows, commercial and multifamily originations increased by a strong 44 percent in 2010," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. "Low interest rates coupled with improving economic fundamentals have the potential to draw out even more borrowers in 2011." Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, collectively, were the largest investor group in 2010, responsible for $42.8 billion of the total, followed closely by life insurance companies and pension funds at $30.6 billion. In terms of property types, multifamily properties saw the highest volume, $48.9 billion, followed by office properties with $22.6 billion of originations. First liens accounted for 92 percent of the total dollar volume closed. Lending for office properties had the largest percentage increase in originations by property type, followed closely by hotel/motel properties and retail. Year-over-year changes are based on the changes in volume among "repeat reporters" that participated in both the 2009 and 2010 surveys.

The stock lever has been reasonably connected so far this morning, and in the same time the S&P has meandered from 1337 to 1132, 10yr TSY yields fell from just over 3.39 to 3.37. Sound familiar? Yep... That was the same move they made this morning from weakest to strongest levels. But this time may be a bit more bullish as they've currently broken into 3.36's without a cue from stocks. FNCL 4.5's are feeling the benefits of the bond-market-bullishness as well, currently up 7 ticks on the day at 102-09. It may be a bit early yet for positive reprices, but if gains extend in time or magnitude, that's the direction we're heading for now.