MBS MID-DAY: Recovering as Stocks Unwind Gains

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MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
94-05 : -0-02
FNMA 4.0
98-12 : -0-02
FNMA 4.5
101-27 : +0-00
FNMA 5.0
104-27 : +0-02
GNMA 3.5
94-29 : -0-04
GNMA 4.0
99-25 : -0-02
GNMA 4.5
103-02 : +0-00
GNMA 5.0
106-07 : +0-02
FHLMC 3.5
93-29 : -0-04
FHLMC 4.0
98-06 : -0-02
FHLMC 4.5
101-24 : -0-01
FHLMC 5.0
104-22 : +0-01
Pricing as of 11:01 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
10:42AM  :  Bonds Rally As Stocks Slide
The stock lever has been fairly connected since stocks opened just over an hour ago. As the S&P just crossed into negative territory on the day, 10yr yields just ticked into their best levels of the morning at 3.51. FNCL 4.5's are currently at their highs as well, 101-27, which is in line with Friday's closing levels.
10:00AM  :  Range For MBS Gets Even More Narrow. Treasuries Trying To Hold Support
FNCL 4.5's are currently at 101-23 and haven't made it any higher than that, or lower than 101-22 in the past hour. Treasuries are a bit weaker by comparison with the 10yr trying to dig it's heals in at its weakest levels of the day with yields looking for support around 3.55. In the midst of these higher yields, higher stock futures, and higher oil, MBS holding a steady, narrow range is a victory by comparison.
9:18AM  :  Fed's Fisher Says He May Vote To End Bond-Buying
*** FED'S FISHER SAYS REMAINS DOUBTFUL ABOUT FED'S CURRENT $600 BILLION BOND BUYING PROGRAM *** WILL VOTE TO CURTAIL OR DISCONTINUE QE2 BOND BUYING PROGRAM IF PROVES TO BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE *** REITERATES WILL NOT BACK FURTHER FED SUPPORT FOR ECONOMY BEYOND QE2
9:15AM  :  MBS Moving In A Tight Range As Treasuries Test Support
10yr note yields rose slightly to officially test the yield lows seen immediately following Friday's Employment Situation Report--3.546/3.548. For treasuries, these are in line with the weakest levels of the morning, yet FNCL 4.5's remain at 101-22 and have thus far been operating in a range from 101-21 to 101-24.
8:37AM  :  Highlights From Fed's Lockhart
*** FED'S LOCKHART: CAUTIOUS ABOUT EXTENDING BOND PURCHASES AFTER JUNE, BUT NEW RISKS CALL FOR FLEXIBILITY *** LOCKHART SAYS WILL TAKE A LONG TIME FOR ECONOMY TO RETURN TO FULL EMPLOYMENT *** LOCKHART: UNREST IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SHIFTS MY SENSE OF BALANCE OF RISKS *** LOCKHART: LATEST JOBS DATA ENCOURAGING BUT PREMATURE TO DECLARE A JOBS RECOVERY FIRMLY ESTABLISHED *** LOCKHART: FIRMING OF CORE INFLATION NOT UNDESIRED, PUTS INFLATION AROUND 2 PCT ZONE CONSISTENT WITH MANDATE *** LOCKHART: "INFLATION ANXIETY" AMONG BUSINESS, CONSUMERS YET TO "LOOSEN MOORINGS" OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS *** LOCKHART: WIDESPREAD UPWARD WAGE PRESSURE KEY TO BROADER INFLATION, DON'T SEE THEM DEVELOPING SOON *** LOCKHART: DO NOT EXPECT RECENT FIRMING INFLATION TO HERALD MORE ACCELERATION DESPITE "CONSIDERABLE PUBLIC CONCERN" *** LOCKHART: BROAD INFLATION WORRIES, EVEN IN REACTION TO TEMPORARY PRICE MOVES, COULD BOOST INFLATION EXPECTATIONS *** LOCKHART SAYS FED MUST REMAIN VIGILANT TO ENSURE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN CONTAINED *** LOCKHART: SOME BUSINESS CONTACTS SAY CAN PASS PRICE RISES TO CONSUMERS AND PLAN TO DO SO OVER NEXT YEAR *** LOCKHART: STILL CONCERN THAT DEMAND IS FRAGILE AND PRICING POWER TOO LIMITED IN MOST MARKETS TO ALLOW FOR BIG PRICE HIKES *** LOCKHART: HOUSING REMAINS SOFT PART OF OTHERWISE ENCOURAGING ECONOMIC PICTURE, PRICES MAY STILL BE FINDING BOTTOM *** LOCKHART: WOULD BE NICE, BUT HIGHLY UNLIKELY, TO HAVE CIRCUMSTANCE WHERE FED'S BALANCE SHEET COULD BE UNWOUND PASSIVELY
8:34AM  :  Bond Market Weaker To Begin The Week
A portion Friday's gains are gone this morning as the 10yr note currently sits at 3.542 and FNCL 4.5's are at 101-22. Treasuries are currently on a pivot point achieved Friday morning in high volume which initially provided resistance to further gains before being broken later in the morning. Holding it this morning as support would be a bullish sign on this mostly data-free day. The only real data of the day comes at 3pm in the form of January's Consumer Credit. previously at 6.10 bln, expected now at 3.90 bln.

Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Adam Quinones  :  "no you are not imagining a resistance barrier there. looking at a 3-month 4.5 chart you can see how it has become a highly trafficked pivot point."
Adam Quinones  :  "represents a psychological inflection point where real money investors will have to begin seriously preparing for an adjustment of their hedging strategies. Same can be said as FNCL 4.0s approach 100-00. Decision making time...."
Jason Wilborn  :  "why do you suppose that is"
Jason Wilborn  :  "last time we had direct fed support for MBS - we really struggled to break the 102 mark - it would seem that with the fed active in buying fixed income again (though not MBS) we seem to have hit a similar ceiling"
Chris Kopec  :  "Interesting to see how the auctions go with all this trouble brewing"
Chris Kopec  :  "Greece downgraded, oil over 105...Saudi Arabia mobilizing 10,000 troops and banning protests.....not stock friendly."
Matthew Graham  :  "letting the voices in my head oversimplify, they say things like "if we see such a noticeable bounce in yields in some of the highest 10 minutes of volume we'll see all year, there's something important about it. Then if we proceed to break it later in the day, it should also be significant if we approach it from the other side. Incidentally, 3.42 was the last daily high set before the early Feb sell-off."
Matthew Graham  :  "change chart to 10yr, check big initial spike down in yield, that's a high volume turn around"
Matthew Graham  :  "so far, most interested in 3.54's as pivot-based support"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "MG.....any specific levelss we r looking at as far as mbs/tsy's?"