MBS Improve After Morning Data. More Asterisks Attached to Econ Reports

The 10yr note yield hit an overnight yield high of 3.66% prior to the release of several economic reports this morning. FNCL 4.5's touched 100-19. After the release of 830am data,  the 10yr yield moved  as low as 3.62%, and is currently bid just above that level.  FNCL 4.5's got as high as 100-25 and have now backed off a few ticks at 100-23.

Here's a screeshot of the MBSonMND Dashboard which will give you a quick look of current MBS and Treasury indications as well as a 2 day chart of FNCL 4.5's.  Remember, you can try the dashboard out for two weeks, free of charge.  Subscribers see the data update in real time with red and green flashes when things are trading up or down.  You can select any security for the chart, change the chart time frame, set up email/text alerts, and there's also a slick mobile app.  CLICK HERE for more info.

Here are links to the three economic data reports that came out at 8:30am

DATA: Empire State Index Rises To 15.43

DATA: January Import Prices Rise More Than

DATA: Retail Sales Misses Consensus, But Excluding

And it just wouldn't be a normal morning for the bond market if potential beneficial data wasn't AGAIN being given a pass with the same old weather caveats... 

8:49 (Dow Jones) January retail sales gain was half the expected increase, but it's hard to say how much of that was caused by weather. Three signs that snow and ice kept people at home and curtailed outdoor activity: the 1.2% gain in on-line shopping, 2.9% drop in sales at building supply stores and 0.7% decline in restaurant sales. (kathleen.madigan@dowjones.com)

Didn't this same thing happen last year? YES IT DID! Of course the caveat could be perfectly tenable but it definitely speaks to the deck being stacked against a speedy directional recovery for MBS prices and mortgage rates. 

Plain and Simple: the technical bias in the bond market is still bearish.

A cluster of resistance is seen around 3.60-3.62 in benchmark 10s as last Friday's yield spike continues to consolidate. FNCL 4.5s run into firm resistance at 100-26.