The Day Ahead: ISM Services, Productivity, Jobless Claims, Bernanke
Stocks and bonds are both getting beat up this morning as investors look ahead to ISM services data, a new jobless claims report, productivity figures, and comments from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.
The situation in the middle-east continues to rattle nerves. The FT reports that six people were killed and at least 800 were injured as protestors clashed with police.
“Concerns that the situation there could worsen and spread to other countries in the region are prompting some safe-haven US$ buying,” said economists at BMO Capital Markets. The US$ index is up 12 basis points to 77.28.
Ninety minutes before the open, S&P 500 futures are 3.25 points lower at 1,296.75 ehilr while Dow futures are 13 points lower at 11,972.
Meanwhile in the bond market, the benchmark 10 year Treasury note is 9/32 lower at 3.515%. The range has been broken for the first time since mid-December. FNCL 4.5 MBS coupons are bid 6/32 lower to 101-15.
Light crude oil is trading 0.68% higher at $91.48 per barrel, while gold prices are 0.58% lower at $1,327 per ounce.
Key Events Today:
8:30 ― The market will be closely watching the Jobless Claims report for the week ending Jan 29. The previous week was a major disappointment as initial claims grew 51k to 454k ― the highest since late October. That raised the four-week average to 428,750.
“Holidays and storms are providing distortions to the data that is even larger than
usual,” said economists at BTMU. “I suspect that the latest week’s jump in claims is reflecting the aftermath of the snowstorm in the South that resulted in a huge backlog of
claims.”
For the final week of January, the consensus looks for 425k new claims. Forecasts are especially wide, ranging from 354k to 434k.
8:30 ― The fourth-quarter Productivity & Costs report, unlikely to receive much attention given that Q4 GDP hit the wires last week, is expected to be unchanged from the previous quarter. Nonfarm Productivity is seen as +2.3%, while unit labor costs are to forecast at -0.1%.
“Productivity growth has cooled in recent quarters after a brief boom in 2009,” said economists at Nomura Global Economics. “However, the current growth rate still suggests output growth would have to accelerate further to lower the unemployment rate quickly.”
10:00 ― ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which looks at the services, financial, and construction sectors nationwide, is expected to slip a marginal 0.1 points to 57.0 in January, representing strong growth to start the New Year. One reason for the strong predictions is the new orders component in December, which jumped more than 5 points to 63.0, the highest level since the recession began. The December index also marked the first time since June 2009 that this index outperformed its manufacturing counterpart.
“Freight activity has picked up in recent weeks, and financial market dynamics generally have been positive,” noted economists at IHS Global Insight. “However, employment market conditions did not improve much in January, possibly as a result of negative weather impacts on construction activity. Orders are expected to hold about the same pace. On net, therefore, not much change in the index.”
12:30 ― Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, speaks to reporters at the National Press Club.
8:00pm ― Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed, speaks in St. Paul, Minn.