Mortgage Rates: Focus Remains on Friday. ADP Jobs Data Provides Preview

Today held one of the few market events with the potential to move mortgage rates between now and Friday's employment situation report. And then the release of the Minutes from the December 14th FOMC meeting came and went this afternoon in a rather uneventful manner as far as the secondary mortgage market is concerned. So we cross that event off the list of mortgage rate movers....

While the chances of this move starting tomorrow are not huge, the release of the ADP Employment Report in the morning could provide some directional guidance because that data tends to be a preview of things to come in the Employment Situation Report (released Friday morning at 8:30am). Still, the bigger movements--the kind that could either significantly improve your scenario or make it altogether unobtainable--are most likely to be seen playing out either on or after Friday (Rates rise much faster than they fall. Keep that in mind)

With that in mind, this is what we've been communicating on the "high risk" event ahead:

For anyone who is waiting for mortgage rates to inch lower, the bond market faces a major hurdle this Friday, January 7, 2011 when the December Employment Situation Report is released. If you are currently being quoted a rate that would reduce your monthly loan payment (enough to be worth the hassle of refinancing), the intermediate term direction that mortgage rates take is largely dependent on this jobs report and revisions to the previous data.

Floating into and through this economic data release is a high risk event. Which means the best execution 30 year fixed mortgage rate could move 0.25% to 0.375% higher. It could also move back down firmly to 4.75% or even 4.50% if the bond market experiences a sustained recovery rally. AGAIN THIS IS A HIGH RISK EVENT!

What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a rates recovery?

   1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not recover as much as you want/need.
   2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not recover as fast as you want/need.
   3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready for MORE VOLATILITY in the bond market.

HERE IS A FULL RECAP OF THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR IN THE WEEK AHEAD

HERE IS MORE ADVANCED MARKET COLOR DISCUSSING THE WEEK AHEAD

Here are current market Best Execution mortgage rate quotes...

Once again, basically unchanged from yesterday, which in itself was basically unchanged from last Thursday.  Don't let that relative stability lull you into a false sense of security though!  If the employment report surprises market participants to the upside (i.e. stronger than expected labor market), rates WILL very likely get worse.  So the default advice above remains.

4.875% is "Best Execution" for very well-qualified borrowers seeking a conventional 30 year fixed home loan. 4.75% is best execution on FHA/VA 30 year fixed loans. Some loan officers have gotten upset with us for saying 4.625% FHA was "Best Execution". This is as good as it gets but we still find ourselves swimming in sea of random rate quotes.  The primary mortgage market is very segmented at the moment. In reality, the best execution 30 year fixed mortgage rate is in a range between 4.75% and 5.125% with definite chances of phantom offers (very-well qualified borrowers) as low as 4.625% on FHA  (4.75% on Conventional loans) and as high as 5.25%. Phantom = elusive. We keep hearing whispers of these quotes but have yet to see proof of aggressive buydown structures.

Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: "Bext Execution" is the most efficient combination of note rate and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by 0.125%. Loan originators will only be able to offer these rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into the "perfect borrower" category, make sure you ask your loan originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more expensive. "No point" loan doesn't mean "no cost" loan. The best 30 year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recordation + escrows (things like upfront MIP (if required), property taxes, homeowners insurance, accrued interest.