Jobless Claims Trending Lower. Still Over 15 Million Unemployed Americans
Jobless Claims data is normally released on Thursdays, it was pushed early because the Federal Government is closed tomorrow in observance of Veterans Day.
Reuters Quick Recap....
RTRS-US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 435,000 NOV 6 WEEK (CONSENSUS 450,000) FROM 459,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 457,000)
RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG FELL TO 446,500 NOV 6 WEEK FROM 456,500 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 456,000)
RTRS-US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 4.301 MLN (CON. 4.330 MLN) OCT 30 WEEK FROM 4.387 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 4.340 MLN)
RTRS-US INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL TO 3.4 PCT OCT 30 WEEK FROM 3.5 PCT PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.4 PCT)
RTRS-US CONTINUED CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE WEEK ENDED NOV 22, 2008 (4.142 MLN)
RTRS-US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG LOWEST SINCE WEEK ENDED SEPT 13, 2008 (444,500)
RTRS-TABLE-U.S. jobless claims fell in latest week
INITIAL CLAIMS: In the week ending Nov. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 435,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 459,000. The 4-week moving average was 446,500, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised average of 456,500. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 449,905 in the week ending Nov. 6, an increase of 28,808 from the previous week. There were 531,743 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.
US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG LOWEST SINCE WEEK ENDED SEPT 13, 2008 (444,500)....
CONTINUING CLAIMS: The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 30 was 4,301,000, a decrease of 86,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,387,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,388,250, a decrease of 35,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,424,000. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,745,901, a decrease of 13,638 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.8 percent and the volume was 4,961,610.
US CONTINUED CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE WEEK ENDED NOV 22, 2008 (4.142 MLN)...
EMERGENCY UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION: -162,460 to 3,815,914 from 3,978,374
EXTENDED BENEFITS: -123,464 to 911,239 from 1,034,703
Plain and Simple: Jobless claims improved and the decline was was larger than forecast. This is turning into a trend! We just need to see it continue. There's still 14.8 million unemployed Americans + 2.6 million marginally attached (includes 1.2 discouraged workers). What a drag...like driving a Ford Festiva up a mountain with a refrigerator in tow.
Treasury yields have yet to hit a ceiling and "rate sheet influential" MBS prices have yet to find a floor. I am not panicking. I repeat. I am not panicking. 10s are not performing well after the apathetic auction yesterday which leads me to believe $16 billion 30s won't be absorbed with any ease at 1pm, regardless of the large concession that has been priced in.
We have yet to see aggressive short covering, we've seen some but not enough to really grab the attention of real money bargain buyers. 2pm provides new details on QEII purchases though, coupon lifts could begin as early as Friday and that will be an overwhelming force in the bond market . A reversal is in looming...we just need the right motivation to overcome day trader/short seller momentum.
It's a waiting game at this point. We gotta wash out the sellers...