DATA FLASH: Fewer Jobless Claims. Better Q2 GDP. Stocks Rally. Bonds Do Not
830AM data has been released. Both Jobless Claims and final Q2 GDP beat consensus estimates (barely).
Here are quick recaps.
RTRS-US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 453,000 SEPT 25 WEEK (CONSENSUS 460,000) FROM 469,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 465,000)
RTRS-US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG FELL TO 458,000 SEPT 25 WEEK FROM 464,250 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 463,250)
RTRS-US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 4.457 MLN (CON. 4.480 MLN) SEPT 18 WEEK FROM 4.540 MLN PRIOR (PREV 4.489 MLN)
RTRS-US INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL TO 3.5 PCT SEPT 18 WEEK FROM 3.6 PCT PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.5 PCT)
RTRS-US JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE WEEK ENDED SEPT 11, 2010 (453,000)
RTRS-US JOBLESS 4 WK AVG LOWEST SINCE WK ENDED JULY 24, 2010; CONTINUED CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE JUNE 26, 2010
RTRS-TABLE-U.S. jobless claims fell in latest week
RTRS-US FINAL Q2 GDP +1.7 PCT (CONSENSUS +1.6 PCT), PREV +1.6 PCT; FINAL SALES +0.9 PCT (CONS +1.0 PCT), PREV +1.0 PCT
RTRS-US FINAL Q2 GDP DEFLATOR +2.0 PCT (CONS +1.9 PCT), PREV +2.0 PCT
RTRS-US Q2 PCE PRICE INDEX 0.0 (CONS 0.0), PREV 0.0; CORE PCE +1.0 PCT (CONS +1.1 PCT), PREV +1.1 PCT
RTRS-US Q2 CONSUMER SPENDING +2.2 PCT (PREV +2.0 PCT); DURABLES +6.8 PCT (PREV +6.9 PCT)
RTRS-US Q2 MARKET-BASED PCE PRICE INDEX -0.2 PCT (PREV -0.2 PCT), CORE +1.0 PCT (PREV +1.1 PCT)
RTRS-US Q2 BUSINESS INVESTMENT +17.2 PCT (PREV +17.6 PCT), EQUIPMENT/SOFTWARE +24.8 PCT (PREV +24.9 PCT)
RTRS-US Q2 HOME INVESTMENT +25.7 PCT (PREV +27.2 PCT), BUS. INVESTMENT IN STRUCTURES -0.5 PCT (PREV +0.4 PCT)
RTRS-US Q2 EXPORTS +9.1 PCT (PREV +9.1 PCT), IMPORTS +33.5 PCT (PREV +32.4 PCT)
RTRS-US Q2 GDP EX MOTOR VEHICLES +1.8 PCT (PREV +1.7 PCT)
RTRS-US Q2 YEAR-ON-YEAR PCE PRICE INDEX +1.9 PCT (PREV +1.9 PCT), CORE PCE +1.5 PCT (PREV +1.5 PCT)
RTRS-US Q2 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE +$68.8 BLN (PREV +$63.2 BLN)
RTRS-US Q2 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE ADDS 0.82 PERCENTAGE POINT TO GDP CHANGE
RTRS-TABLE-U.S. Q2 GDP revised to +1.7 percent
MARKET REACTION....
Stock futures better, benchmark bond yields up, MBS lose positive price progress.
S&Ps are +3.00 at 1144.00. Up 6 handles from pre-data levels.
10s are +0-06 at 101-08+ yielding 2.478%. Rates moved higher as the data flashed but that move was modest and 10s quickly corrected shortly thereafter.
The November FNCL 4.0 is +0-03 at 102-17. The FNCL 4.0 shed 7/32 at 8:30, falling from 102-21 all the way down to 102-14 (even on the day). The outer layer of our internal trendlines served as support.