The Week Ahead: Busy Calendar Before Employment Situation Report

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Economic Calendar

The first Friday of a new month is upon us, that means the official Employment Situation Report  is just ahead.  Because this data provides an in-depth look at the health of the driving force behind consumer spending, the labor market, investing sentiment is highly dependent on the findings of the two surveys that make up the Employment Situation Report: Non-Farm Payrolls and the Household Survey.  With that in mind, leading up to the release the market will likely be hesitant to head too far in either direction without adequate confirmation and acceptance of that move.

From Reuters: U.S. August payrolls and unemployment data on Friday. Payrolls are forecast to have fallen by about 99,000, according to Reuters polling, a smaller fall than the 131,000 in July. After the recession of 2008, payrolls began growing again in October 2009 but since May they have been falling again as the government laid off temporary workers hired for the census. Private payrolls are seen rising by about 40,000, down from a rise of 70,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent last month.

While the official Employment Situation Report is the most anticipated event of the week, the economic calendar is filled with several potential market movers including three reports on housing and the minutes of the August 10th FOMC meeting. Below is the full schedule of economic indicators to be released in the week ahead.

Federal Reserve Events

Following the Fed Chairman's economic outlook on Friday (FULL RECAP), the markets get to digest more comments and perspective from Federal Reserve speakers this week.

Monday: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives welcome before "A Discussion on Financial Regulatory Reform" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). No media Q&A.

Wednesday: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher speaks on "Perspectives on the Current Economic Climate" before a Greater Houston Partnership at a Thought Leader Series Luncheon. Q&A expected. Media Q&A likely.

Friday:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economy at an event hosted by East Tennessee State University. Audience Q&A expected. Media Q&A TBD.

Also on the agenda is a Fed sponsored summit on Neighborhood Stabilization. Scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, Federal Reserve officials and industry experts will meet in D.C. to talk about REO & Vacant Properties. Discussion topics include: Fostering Healthy Regional Markets, Industry Perspectives on REO Strategies, New Directions for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP), Promising Approaches to Stabilizing Neighborhoods and Keeping Properties Occupied, Overcoming Local Challenges: Boston and Cleveland, Taking Stabilization Efforts to Scale.

HERE is the full summit schedule and roster of speakers and panelists.

Other Events...

  • Tuesday: Canada releases Q2 GDP Data
  • Tuesday: President Obama will address the nation on the status of the U.S. troop drawdown in Iraq
  • Tuesday: FDIC holds its quarterly briefing on bank industry earnings where the agency will reveal how many banks have been added to the "troubled bank list".  FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair will give an update on the health of the banking sector.
  • Wednesday: The Federal Crisis Commission holds a hearing on "Too Big to Fail: Expectations and Impact of Extraordinary Government Intervention and the role of Systemic Risk in the Financial Crisis."
  • Wednesday: Apple to unveil new iPods (wooohoo another shiny electronic device to buy!)
  • Thursday: Major retailers report August sales. Walmart will not report.
  • Thursday: Treasury announces supply terms for 3s, 10s, and 30s to be auctioned the following week. 
  • Thursday: The European Central Bank holds a policy meeting. The ECB is expected to upgrade its economic outlook (thanks to strong growth in Germany) but will also extend emergency liquidity measures, which are supposed to expire at the end of September.
  • Watch out for Hurricane Danielle and Hurricane Earl