The Week Ahead: Home Sales, Treasury Auctions, Durable Goods, GDP, Fed Speak
The data calendar is semi-busy in the week ahead but gets off to a slow start. Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and New Home Sales highlight the first three days while the preliminary read on Q2 GDP and an update from Ben Bernanke grab the spotlight heading into the weekend. In the midst of these events the Treasury will be auctioning coupon supply.
July Existing Home Sales will be released on Tuesday morning. Economists are forecasting a 12.0% decline in sales of previously owned homes after existing home sales fell 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June from 5.66 million in May. Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 2.5 percent to 3.99 million existing homes available for sale, which represented an 8.9-month supply, up from an 8.3-month supply in May. This was the largest amount of existing homes for sale, in terms of months of supply, since August 2009.
New Home Sales are released on Wednesday. Forecasters polled by Reuters see New Home Sales holding near record low levels of activity in July.
Sales of new single-family houses in June 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000. This was 23.6 percent above the revised May rate of 267,000, but 16.7 percent below the June 2009 estimate of 396,000. New Home Sales in June rebounded from historic lows in May but the market's attention was focused on the fact that May survey data was revised from 300,000 new home sales to 267,000 new home sales. Nonetheless, New Home Sales didn't decline further.
Durable Goods Orders are also released on Wednesday. Durable Goods Orders provide a gauge on the amount of goods moving around the economy. When goods move around the economy, so does money. Money moving around the economy helps keep people employed. Durable goods orders are expected to have improved 2.8% in July vs. -1.2% in June.
On Thursday we get the weekly release of Initial Jobless Claims and on Friday Consumer Sentiment and Preliminary Q2 GDP.
All of these events carry high potential to be taken as "worse than expected" by the market. Below is a recap of economic indicators scheduled to be released in the week ahead.
FED SPEAK:
Monday, August 23, 10:30am - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas
Hoenig testifies on "Too Big Has Failed: Learning from Midwest Banks and
Credit Unions" before a field hearing of the House subcommittee on
oversight and
investigations.
Tuesday, August 24, 8:45am - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks at Indianapolis Neighborhood Housing Partnership Community Breakfast. Q&A expected.
Friday, August 27, 10:00am - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on "The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve's Policy Response" before the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium. No Q&A.
TREASURY AUCTIONS:
Monday, August 23, 1:00pm: $7 billion 30-Year TIPS
Tuesday, August 24,1:00pm: $37 billion 2-Year Notes
Wednesday August 25, 1:00pm: $36 billion 5-Year Notes
Thursday, August 26, 1:00pm: $29 billion 7-Year Notes
The Federal Reserve has two open market Treasury coupon purchases scheduled this week. One on Tuesday and the other on Thursday.