Tuesday 9/16 ... Morning Spread Weakness Persists, but Prices Stay Positive

By: Matthew Graham •
5.5's at 101-23+ (11 ticks up)
  • 5.0's at 100-14 (20 ticks up)
  • 4.5's at 98-08 (36 ticks up)
  • 10 Yr UST at 105-30 / 3.29 Yield (42 ticks up)
  • 5 Yr UST at 103-08 / 2.45 Yield (27 ticks up)
  • 30 Yr UST at 109-15 / 3.95 Yield (114 ticks up!)
  • Dow Futures down 69 (27 fair value)
  • S&P Futures down 9.7 (1.5 fair value)
  • Oil down big 4.39 to 91.32!


Action Packed News Day:

  1. Store Sales (already out weaker than expected)
  2. CPI in about 30 minutes
    1. expected down .3, Core expected up .2, Year over year expected at 5.2%
    2. Core was previously at .3, Headline previously at .8
    3. UK CPI came in higher than expected overnight
  3. Fed Meeting Today .... Minutes at 2:15pm Eastern
    1. Many are expecting big things
    2. Futures pricing in .25 cut
    3. Some think .5 cut
    4. Don't be surprised to see surprise announcements that shake up the markets

Other Non-Scheduled Considerations

  • Fed working with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs to figure out how to raise 75 billion dollars for AIG
  • If that money can't be raised, insiders expect AIG will have to file bankruptcy tomorrow
  • Pundits claim vehemently, "AIG: too big to fail!" But Fed determined to allow free market solution, either via Chase and GS or Bankruptcy
  • AIG down almost 50% overnight