The Day Ahead: Four Reports to Hit Markets
A packed schedule of economic data awaits skeptical investors this morning. Before the data, stocks are down for the fourth consecutive day even in light of Germany reporting astounding growth for the second quarter.
Ninety minutes before Friday’s opening bell, Dow futures are trading 18 points lower at 10,253 and S&P 500 futures are down 3.25 points to 1,076.
WTI crude oil is 14 cents higher at $75.88 per barrel, and Spot Gold is up $1.20 to $1,215.05.
The German economy expanded 2.2% in the quarter ― an annualized rate of 9%.
“That’s the strongest quarterly performance since Germany reunification, propelling Euro area growth to 3.9% annualized,” said economists at BMO. “Because these are only preliminary numbers, the details aren’t available, but surely exports were a key driver.”
Annualized, eurozone GDP advanced 1% in the second quarter, versus forecasts of a 0.7% gain and following a 0.2% expansion in the first quarter.
Meantime, the benchmark 10-year Treasury is yielding 2.71%, three basis points down from yesterday, while the US dollar index is roughly flat at 82.64.
Key Events Today:
8:30 ― The Consumer Price Index should continue to give the green light to an accommodative monetary policy. Headline prices are expected to rise 0.2% in July after falling 0.1% in June, putting the year-to-year gain at 1.2%, well below historical norms. Core prices, the more closely watched measure which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise a less-than-frightening 0.1%, after advancing 0.2% in June. Annual core prices are anticipated to rise 0.9%, more than a percentage point below the Fed’s unofficial target.
“Consumer price inflation is expected to remain subdued in July,” said economists at BBVA. “Energy prices will minimally impact the headline figure, while economic slack will continue to weigh on the core. One notable change is that shelter prices are beginning to firm, which indicates that the downward spiral in core prices may have reached bottom. A negative surprise in core inflation could reinforce the deflationary fears of some FOMC members. As a result, the Fed could keep rates low for longer than market expectations.”
8:30 ― Another key report this week, Retail Sales, could bring a boost to financial markets if forecasts are correct. Economists look for a 0.5% gain in July, which would erase the 0.5% decline in June. Excluding autos, retail sales are anticipated to rise 0.3% after falling 0.1% in June, indicating the gains could be broad.
“Retail sales have slumped over the past two months so July’s seemingly strong increase will really serve to gain back only some of that cumulative loss,” said economists at BTMU. “The problem seems to lay in the fact that spillover from the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit has hit retail sales hard, specifically in the category of furniture and home furnishings, which has fallen by 4.2% since April; and building materials, which has fallen by 9.9% since May. This is another example of why we can never stress enough how important home sales is as a driver of overall consumer spending.”
Economists at BBVA add that auto sales will help to boost the overall figure in July, but the employment situation continues to hold back any big gains in the report.
“A negative surprise in retail sales would raise concerns about the strength of private demand,” they wrote. “While business spending is picking up, consumer spending remains fragile given the slow recovery of the labor market.”
10:00 ― The U of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment report should jump 1.5 points to 69.3 in August, according to economists forecasting the preliminary report. That gain will look relatively slight next to the near-10 point drop in July. Economists’ forecasts are optimistic, in part at least, because the “final” July reading improved from the preliminary one. In any case, the report isn’t suggesting that consumers feel great about the economy, only that things aren’t as bad now that the recent oil spill has been ― at least temporarily ― resolved.
“This is a slight improvement for the August preliminary reading, but still far below June,” economists at IHS Global Insight said. “Consumers continue to feel the pain of depressed household net worth, poor labor market conditions, and high debt levels.”
10:00 ― The week’s final data entry, Business Inventories, is expected to inch up 0.2% in June after rising 0.1% in May.
There are concerns that inventories could fall, however, after manufacturing shipments were down for the month.
Economists at Nomura, for instance, said the underlining trend of consumption was “very weak” in the month, and that to align their stocks with weak demand, retailers likely reduce inventories a bit.