Green Monday .... An Intro...
Ok, none of this Monday 9/8 stuff any more. I hereby proclaim this Green Monday.
At this point, the MBS market is as high as I thought it could probably go this morning in light of the treasury drop off. I mean, we knew this would cause dramatic tightening, and we knew that the fact Lockhart specificially stated this move was to benefit MBS investors, but even optimists are pleased by what we are seeing now.
5.5's are up to 100-20. Folks, that is the kind of price level where we'd see an aggressive lender price 5.5% at PAR.
6.0's are up a ridiculous 30 ticks to 102-14.
5.0's are your new "2nd closest to PAR" coupon at 98-06.
Now, let's talk turkey. This is like 2 feet of snow in July. Don't go runnin' out into the street just yet. You need to shop, shop, shop if you are going to lock today. Although most of the MBS money ends up in the same few hands, there can be a dramatic difference in pricing today between lenders. Also, I wouldn't lock until you see at least that point improvement over last week, unless the curve starts to drop. As the last post said, this is the beginning of a new world order (well, maybe not quite, but still pretty dang cool).
I also wanted to take a moment to point out that reputable MBS sites have actually changed previously posted content because they did not have their finger on the pulse of this situation. Some reputable sites made no mention of the breaking news alert on Friday (not all, but some). Some sites even were out this morning saying that "bonds were worse" making no mention of pre-market MBS trading showing significant improvements. Be careful out there before taking anyone's advice. Seek only education and draw your own conclusions. This is going to be a very tumultuous week in MBS. If you subscribe to another service, given the magnitude and accuracy of the content you've been getting here, and knowing that we have live email alerts, live pricing, and so much else on the way, it may be time to start reevaluate your sources for market data.
More later...