What's Priced in: Current Market Expectations for Future Monetary Policy

Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for future interest rate moves:

FED - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 4% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Sept. 16.

Markets are pricing in a 24% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp hike and a 90% chance of a 50bp hike by June 24, 2009.

BOC - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 37% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Oct. 21.

Markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in an 89% chance of 25bp cut cut by July 14, 2009.

BOJ - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 1% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 17.

Markets are pricing in a 3% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 2% chance of a 25bp hike by Feb. 19, 2009.

RBA - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 79% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Oct. 7.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 99% chance of a 50bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 75bp cut and a 63% chance of a 100bp cut by May 5, 2009.

BOE - SONIA Implied Rate

Markets are pricing in a 35% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Oct. 9.

Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp cut and a 66% chance of a 75bp cut by April 9, 2009.

ECB - EONIA Implied Rate

Markets are pricing in a 1% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Oct. 2.

Markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 54% chance of a 25bp cut by April 2, 2009.

By Ryan Szporer and edited by Nancy Girgis
©CEP News Ltd. 2008