MBS Close At Highest Prices Of 2010

By: Matthew Graham •
  • 4.5's closed up 1 tick at 101-31.  3pm marks were at 102-00
  • Treasuries were effectively unchanged from 3pm marks at 3.37, but 5pm to 5pm, yields backed up 2bps
  • Stocks tanked early, but found support at 1100, WHICH WAS WELL BEFORE FOMC MINUTES to which many ascribe late day strength.
  • In fact, from 2pm to 3pm, the S&P lost several points.
  • That said, the components of the FOMC statement that were economically bullish probably contributed to a trading environment in which stocks could survive
  • Other components were decidedly bond-friendly, but with already heady levels in bonds, it's the same story of the minutes not polluting a bullish bond trading environment, thus allowing the gains to further materialize.
  • Bottom line, both sides of the market drew sideways support from the minutes because of what it DID NOT SAY as opposed to finding reason to move in one direction or another based on some new or unexpected information.

I wrote a bit more than normal in the charts tonight, as well as the bullet points above.  So I'll squeeze in the rest of the writing here in order to leave you some uninterrupted perusal of charts.  In general, note the following

On one of the shorter term charts, it does indeed look like a bullish breakout for treasuries.  (and it is), but consider that breakout in the context of the past two times it happened the same way and we might start to wonder about the longevity

1110 in the S&P feels like some sort of symbolic level that really put the brakes on the stock rally into late 2009.  I think everyone assumed it would go higher in 2010, but now that it has, and now that circumstances have brought stock prices back down, 1110 emerges as that sort of old, bad habit that stocks had symbolically "kicked."  Their unwillingness to go "back to their old ways" is obvious.  But that doesn't mean that won't!

It's either frustrating or exciting to have so many things going on at the moment.  Stocks and bonds are resting at some fairly huge long term pivots, and MBS just clocked it's highest close of the year.  But with all the pertinent technical considerations, tax credit expirations, multi-year low levels of mortgage apps potentially affecting the MBS supply picture, the neverending raft of EU drama, the neverending raft of legislative considerations, not to mention the standard issue economic data, we find ourselves in one of those times where there are too many cooks in the kitchen as far as what MIGHT move markets.  Sure, there are frontrunners and usual suspects, but even the "also-rans" can have their say if they're willing to speak loudly enough. 

All that being the case, and considering MBS unwillingness to close much higher than this even in simpler and more bullish times, the default suggestion is to use the hair trigger on your locking guns, and watch MBS like a hawk.  It's not a crime to float, but it would be to miss a clearcut sign of a reversal or sell-off.