MBS Close Just Off Session Price Highs. Treasuries End Day At Best Levels
- FN 4.5's up 13 ticks at 101-31
- 10yr Yields down 13.7 bps to 3.352 currently, 3.37+ at the 3pm close
- Dow down 114 and S&P goes out over 14 pts down at 1120.80
- FOMC Minutes Tomorrow.
Very strong afternoon for bonds, and in decent volume as well. Primarily however, there remains an air of global uneasiness, if not panic, that is going a long way to drive the current strength of the dollar, if for no other key reason than the weakness of the Euro.
So stocks sell, safe havens rally, and we're left to wonder how much of this rally is still comprised of glass... Don't get me wrong, even without Greece, EU, etc..., we've been rallying, but 3.3's (which was likely in the cards as of last week), may not have happened without "panic."
Longer term, Treasury trend remains intact, and we see a possibility for the rally to extend even more:
If some of the other recent "habits" of trend movements hold true for MBS (i.e. various ranges have been reliably parallel), we end up looking to be on fairly even footing with treasuries as far as the "running out of room to run" game is concerned...
Headline risk and tradeflow considerations are certainly factors and FOMC minutes (even though they're "only" minutes) always have the potential to shake things up. Beyond that, it still is a headline-risk rich environment.