Monday 8/25 - Still Strong (and boring)

Spreads still wide, but whole FI stack so strong (10 yrs up 24 tick and 5 years up 15 ticks) that even laggard MBS are bid up 8 ticks at 100-19.  We've held that range or better ever since 9AM.

Yawn...

Reprices for the better potential from some lenders.

Tonight may be one of the better days to lock this week, especially if we start getting stronger than expected data.

Volume is a bit lower today though in preparation for tomorrow's Fed Minutes.  Regardless of economic data, that may set the tone for the rest of the week.  Whatever the case 100-19 level on 6.0's is the best we've had in a while.  So although indicators are pointing to continued strength in MBS, no one could fault you for taking your gains.  OR, if you have more than a few loans going, hedge your pipeline by locking the most sensitive ones and floating the rest.

Yet again, as it was 3 weeks ago, the longer you have to wait, the more floating makes sense.  The only big gamble here is potential Fannie/Freddie Catastrophe with inflation tape-bombs being not far behind.  But those two demons notwithstanding, it's hard to see based on fundamentals and technicals how you'd not have better rates at least once in the next 3 weeks if you float now.

And so the graphic must be introduced again (especially in case you missed it last week), 

(props 2 of 5 to Nirish for the graphic)